Fernando Cervantes Jr.,Laura Daniella SepulvedaArizona Republic
Monsoon season in Phoenix has been on the calendar for almost a month, but the Valley hasn't seen any rain or monsoon storms.
Where has the rain gone, and when will it come back?
According to Isaac Smith, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix, measurable rain last fell in the area 110 days ago, on March 22. On that day, about 0.2 inches of rain fell across the Valley.
Smith said he believes Phoenix might be able to break or tie records — and breach the top 10 list of days without rain. Ninth place on the list is 117 days. The top record is 160 days, which was in 1972, the same year that the city saw the worst flash flood in its history, when 3 to 5 inches fell and flooded homes in Phoenix and Scottsdale.
Looking ahead, Smith believes that rain will eventually come, but residents might have to wait just a little bit longer.
“By the time we get to late July and by early August, there's a very high chance that we should already have seen our first measurable rainfall of the monsoon season,” Smith said.
Hotter and drier monsoon season
Phoenix is almost a third of the way into this year's monsoon season. The current forecast favors above-normal temperatures and tilts toward below-normal precipitation for the monsoon season, Smith said.
The heat has been a big factor in Phoenix for the past couple of weeks. The extended heat warning that has been in effect for the last week was slated to end on the night of the Fourth of July, but the National Weather Service has extended it multiple times. It is now in effect until at least Sunday night.
Smith believes that the heat warning might even extend further into next week, potentially beating long-standing heat records.
Extended warnings: Phoenix already under an excessive heat warning has it extended for at least another week
Conditions not favorable for monsoons
A high-pressure system that is currently in the Phoenix area has made conditions for monsoons not very favorable because of the lack of moisture.
“It's not a very favorable pattern to get that moisture in here,” Smith said. “We typically like to see that area of high-pressure to be centered closer to the Four Corners region.”
Conditions favorable for wildfires
The wildfire season in Arizona has stayed relatively calm, but the elevated temperatures increase the risk of fires.
“We’re still going to remain pretty dry, our moisture levels are still pretty low,” said Gabriel Lojero, a weather service meteorologist. “The combination of the dry fuels, the relative humidity and then potentially some gusty breezes in the afternoon make conditions favorable for some wildfire activity.”
Heat cancellations: Record-setting extreme heat cancels Phoenix festival. What to do if you have tickets
Tucson and Flagstaff to see first monsoon rains
While Tucson and Flagstaff should also prepare for the extreme temperatures, a little bit of relief could come with monsoon rains likely arriving early this week, according to Kevin Strongman, meteorologist with the weather service in Tucson.
"Chances for storms will keep happening every afternoon," Strongman said. "Storm chances will be the highest in the middle of the week."
Some areas south of Tucson already saw a few monsoon showers on Saturday and Sunday, and Tucson will likely also see the monsoon rains on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday, Strongman said.
Although the rains will likely bring some needed cooldown amid soaring temperatures, he advised residents to take precautions during the storms.
"Keep in mind the dangers of thunderstorms," Strongman said. "If you hear thunders, go indoors. We also get some gusty outloads that could potentially bring some dust concerns."
Todd Bostock, co-owner of Dos Cabezas WineWorks in Sonoita, recorded the first rain of monsoon season on Saturday and posted it on the winery's Instagram account.
"I have a complicated relationship with monsoon," Bostock said. "There's times in which you wish it would go away, and then it goes away, and you wish it would come back."
Bostock said Saturday's shower brought some nice breezes and whished-for cooling following the nonstop dry and sunny days from the weeks before.
"It's really, kind of lovely," Bostock said. "We'll take it. There's always that conflict of what you would like, personally, and what you would like for farming, but with (Saturday's) rain, we both win, we're both excited about the rain."
Flagstaff will also see up to a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as moisture levels start to climb, according to meteorologist Paige Konieczny, who advised residents to check the weather and road conditions during storms.
Even as rains are rolling in, meteorologists predict that temperatures will remain dangerously hot by the weekend. Highs are forecasted to reach 110 degrees by Saturday in Tucson and approach the 100 mark in northern Arizona.
"Don't let (the rain) fool you," Konieczny said. "We're still going to be seeing some warm days, so just be sure to stay hydrated outside."
Hot weather tips
The Arizona Department of Health Services provided tips to prevent heat-related illness:
- Drink water: It is recommended to drink at least 2 liters of water per day if people are staying inside all day. Those who spend time outdoors should drink 1 to 2 liters per hour they are outside.
- Dress for the heat: Wear lightweight and light-colored clothing. Sunscreen should always be applied to exposed skin and it is recommended to wear a hat or use an umbrella when outdoors.
- Eat small meals and eat more often: They recommend avoiding foods high in protein that increase metabolic heat.
- Monitor those at risk: Check on friends, family or others for signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke.
- Slow down and avoid strenuous activity: It is recommended to only do strenuous activity during the coolest hours of the day, between 4 and 7 a.m.
- Stay indoors.
- Take breaks when engaged in physical activity: Take a break in a cool place when doing activity outside on a hot day.
