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ptallardy
Registered User
- Aug 2023
- 7
#1
Saratoga meet discussion so far
I’m struggling a bit so far. I noticed 4 Pos total 0s won today bringing the meet total so far to 12!
Speed seems to be really struggling in the turf sprints.
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Candybag
Registered User
- Apr 2011
- 1462
#2
Taking a group to Saratoga in 2 weeks. I am clueless as to what is working this meet. I do agree with Chad Brown: Meet is not the same level of quality.
JL: Please send money and fast!
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KB
Registered User
- Nov 2018
- 262
#3
If this is of any help, so far at Saratoga my straight pool bets are as follows:
Win: 1/4 25% ROI 0.71
Plc: 6/7 86% ROI 1.48
Shw: 2/4 50% ROI 0.80Turf: 2/6 33% ROI 0.63
Dirt: 7/9 78% ROI 1.40ALL: 9/15 60% ROI 1.09.
I, too, noticed the flurry of 0-Positive winners. Entire days have gone by where I can't pull the trigger on making a single bet, like Friday; yesterday I made only a small Pick 5 wager that did not pan out. So far, I'm finding value in the place pool as long as I avoid the favorite.
The latest episode of Chris Larmey's 'Bet with the Best' podcast is wtih David Aragona, the MLO oddsmaker for NYRA. It's worth a listen.
Last edited by KB; 21 July 2024, 08:24.38 AM.
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TxRailbird
Registered User
- Jan 2020
- 27
#4
Headed to Saratoga Springs tomorrow for the full weekend. Also hoping to find some answers onsite that have evaded me from afar. Chris posted the second episode with Aragona earlier today so have that to listen to on the plane.
Weather forecasts are not the greatest, but we're still hoping to pull off another "Degenerate Friday" with a doubleheader of throughbreds during the day and trotters at night.
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James Loftus
Registered User
- Oct 2013
- 926
#5
Originally posted by CandybagView Post
Taking a group to Saratoga in 2 weeks. I am clueless as to what is working this meet. I do agree with Chad Brown: Meet is not the same level of quality.
JL: Please send money and fast!
Your Sopranos-like "envelope" is on the way, CandyBag. Don't put it all on Pie Oh My, though.
For all: it's a tough game, as we all know. Zero-positive horses are tough to "find", but I rather these than a string of 2/5s. Hang in there and don't be discouraged. You get what you think about whether you want it or not. And you lose, just ask Candy for a reimbursem*nt...he'll have the cash.
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KB
Registered User
- Nov 2018
- 262
#6
Originally posted by TxRailbirdView Post
Chris posted the second episode with Aragona earlier today so have that to listen to on the plane.
I listened to it about an hour ago. His guest, David Aragona (the creator of the MLO for NYRA) said that the CAWs are prohibited from only the Win pool but not the Place and Show pools. That doesn't surprise me as I've seen some extraordinary post-bell dropdowns in the price of place bets this year. I'm doing well in the place pool only because I've been on a roll, but a number of them should have paid upwards of $4 but ended up at $2.80. Because of the prevalence of CAWs, I play NYRA exclusively now.
Last edited by KB; 22 July 2024, 07:41.07 PM.
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Candybag
Registered User
- Apr 2011
- 1462
#7
I received the envelope, thank you JL, heard rain was in the forecast, and was taking the subway in route to Saratoga in need of a tip, and as destiny would have it......Bing Videos
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FunkyDJ
Registered User
- May 2022
- 32
#8
Good luck rest of the meet. It's raining today (Tuesday) in Saratoga Springs. Not heavy and should end soon. But Wednesday is another story, Be prepared to audible. One standout:
1) 5.5f Turf Sprints. FR3=1 have won 46% of the races and this follows last year's trend. ROI is $4.97 with small sample this meet,
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ptallardy
Registered User
- Aug 2023
- 7
#9
Originally posted by FunkyDJView Post
Good luck rest of the meet. It's raining today (Tuesday) in Saratoga Springs. Not heavy and should end soon. But Wednesday is another story, Be prepared to audible. One standout:
1) 5.5f Turf Sprints. FR3=1 have won 46% of the races and this follows last year's trend. ROI is $4.97 with small sample this meet,
Agreed that’s the trend. The winners of those races since last year seem to be on the lead or closing. Chasing speed seems to be the least effective, atleast since last year.
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James Loftus
Registered User
- Oct 2013
- 926
#10
Originally posted by CandybagView Post
I received the envelope, thank you JL, heard rain was in the forecast, and was taking the subway in route to Saratoga in need of a tip, and as destiny would have it......Bing Videos
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sjp18
Registered User
- Jul 2024
- 2
#11
New to the forum but wanted to comment and see what other people think. Also seem to have found this Saratoga meet to be a bit tougher than usual.
Some things I've noticed based on the below (Jul 11 - Jul 21)
Surface Distance # of Races W2W % Norm W2W % Delta 123 % Norm 123 % Delta Dirt 5.5 10 60% 25% +35% 90% 60% +30% Dirt 6.0 15 33% 25% +8% 87% 60% +27% Dirt 9.0 11 36% 20% +16% 64% 50% +14% Sample sizes aren't the largest but these races really seem to be playing on the front end for the above. I don't know if there is just lack of good stalkers/closers in these fields, or if there hasn't been much speed signed on in these races to close into. However, the amount of winners that are in the top 3 at first call is a lot higher than what is considered normal. 9F has come down a little bit, but I believe after Saturday, the 123% for 9F was also around 90%.
I am going to put my effort into really trying to predict who the top 3 will be at first call in these races, and see how I do this week. If anyone has recommendations on how to do that I'm all ears! My plan was to use VEL on PL-5. Found myself playing too many off-pace horses last week that didn't end up winning.
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Candybag
Registered User
- Apr 2011
- 1462
#12
Originally posted by James LoftusView Post
JL: Heard the customer got fined by HISA for excessive use of the crop. My wife thinks it is funny when horseplayers yell at the television for horses hundreds of miles away. Then again, she yells at THE Ohio State Buckeyes when on television. Thank you for sharing.
sjp18: Welcome aboard. My front-end horses are getting killed at Saratoga. Going to Saratoga this meet and thinking about passing every race and betting other tracks. I am getting killed there and I just do not feel like handing them JL's envelope.
Last edited by Candybag; 24 July 2024, 02:03.43 AM.
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ptallardy
Registered User
- Aug 2023
- 7
#13
Originally posted by sjp18View Post
New to the forum but wanted to comment and see what other people think. Also seem to have found this Saratoga meet to be a bit tougher than usual.
Some things I've noticed based on the below (Jul 11 - Jul 21)
Surface Distance # of Races W2W % Norm W2W % Delta 123 % Norm 123 % Delta Dirt 5.5 10 60% 25% +35% 90% 60% +30% Dirt 6.0 15 33% 25% +8% 87% 60% +27% Dirt 9.0 11 36% 20% +16% 64% 50% +14% Sample sizes aren't the largest but these races really seem to be playing on the front end for the above. I don't know if there is just lack of good stalkers/closers in these fields, or if there hasn't been much speed signed on in these races to close into. However, the amount of winners that are in the top 3 at first call is a lot higher than what is considered normal. 9F has come down a little bit, but I believe after Saturday, the 123% for 9F was also around 90%.
I am going to put my effort into really trying to predict who the top 3 will be at first call in these races, and see how I do this week. If anyone has recommendations on how to do that I'm all ears! My plan was to use VEL on PL-5. Found myself playing too many off-pace horses last week that didn't end up winning.
Here’s my anecdotes.
the first week on the dirt seems to be better for outside pressing speeds. Last week saving ground seemed to be better
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cheetahrules
Registered User
- Aug 2021
- 1044
#14
Originally posted by CandybagView Post
JL: Heard the customer got fined by HISA for excessive use of the crop. My wife thinks it is funny when horseplayers yell at the television for horses hundreds of miles away. Then again, she yells at THE Ohio State Buckeyes when on television. Thank you for sharing.
sjp18: Welcome aboard. My front-end horses are getting killed at Saratoga. Going to Saratoga this meet and thinking about passing every race and betting other tracks. I am getting killed there and I just do not feel like handing them JL's envelope.
Maybe this is something to watch - CB
See if this pattern holds up. LP1 = 1 on Turf (Not Inner) on 5.5 F and 8.5 F ( I meant to use Robot on just 8.5F but I included both distances by accident but they are both getting some winners) #7 Funny Uncle Won today at 8.5F
I'm working on checking on last years meet.
Last edited by cheetahrules; 24 July 2024, 02:47.02 PM.
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ptallardy
Registered User
- Aug 2023
- 7
#15
If the 9 holds on in the first leg of the late p5, I would be a very rich man. I did catch the pick 4, but only 2x. I was 6x to the 4 and 5.
Does anybody negotiate outside posts on saratoga turf better than Jose Ortiz?
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