Picks & Plays for Friday, July 26
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 10 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 10: 4 - 6 - 9 - 2
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Bourbon Calling (#8) is the horse to beat in the opener as he continues to descend the class ladder for Linda Rice. I don’t want to read too much into the series of drops, since Linda Rice can be pretty aggressive with her placements of these types at Saratoga. He was facing a better field last time and did finish with good interest albeit belatedly. There’s nothing overly clever about him, but I won’t be surprised when he just wins. I definitely prefer him to the two others who could take money in this spot. A couple of alternatives interest me at bigger prices. The more logical of the two is Mason Mania (#7), who didn’t run well off the claim last time but also had little chance in a race that was dominated up front. This drop all the way down to $16k is far from an encouraging sign, but he has plenty of back races that put him in the mix. My top pick will be an even bigger price. Classic Mark (#4) is ridden by a jockey who won’t attract much support, but he’s riding a speed horse on the dirt, so I’m not as reluctant to be turned off by a rider as I would be in, let’s say, a turf race. This horse has races that make him competitive here, and he was just competing in spots that were too tough for him when he was first claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez last year. Something went awry prior to the layoff, but his return race on June 21 wasn’t bad at all. He only finished a length behind Bourbon Calling, just fading in the final furlong after contesting the pace early. His connections used the claiming waiver that day, suggesting that they were probably using the race as a prep. Now he drops into a realistic spot, and the price figures to fair.
Fair Value:
#4 CLASSIC MARK, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 2
Majulu (#10) figures to run a lot better as he switches to turf given his pedigree. This horse showed speed on debut before fading, but he’s by War Dancer out of a dam who earned her best speed figure on grass. I think this is the right spot for him, and he’s the intriguing new face in a field where the turf form isn’t so compelling. Among those with prior form at this level, Galatrona (#6) makes sense based on her turf sprint from last October. She was keen through the early stages that day and in tight on the turn before finishing well. Her recent form is a question mark, but she’s not a dirt horse and now lands in the right spot. I would upgrade her if she gets ignored in the wagering. That's because I don’t want to settle for a short price on Generous Luva (#1), who really shortened stride when fading against maiden special weight company last time. That was a tougher field, and now she’s adding Lasix, so perhaps better can be expected. I just don’t think you’re getting much value on her with Irad aboard. I would much rather take Play Free Bird (#4) out of that race. She was also fading late in that May 25 affair but was able to hold things together better than the likely favorite, hardly disgraced by the better company. Then last time she had good early position, but got shuffled back around the far turn under a conservative ride, and couldn’t close late in a race that was dominated up front. I think she’s dropping to the right level and I like her turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs.
Fair Value:
#4 PLAY FREE BIRD, at 7-2 or greater
#6 GALATRONA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
I’m not thrilled with the familiar horses in this marathon first-level allowance. Be Like Clint (#6) and Better Bet (#5)have been competing at this level in recent starts. The former is the most consistent runner in this whole field, routinely picking up checks in recent starts. However, he remains winless on turf despite working out good trips in his recent attempts at this level. I can at least make an excuse for Better Bet’s poor performance last time, since he clipped heels heading into the first of three turns and was never himself thereafter. However, I’m not thrilled with the fields either of these horses are exiting and would rather explore other options. Vesting (#2) could take money, and might even go favored, based purely on connections. This gelded son of Blue Point is obviously improving, having taken a step forward from his debut last time when stretched out to this distance. Yet he got a great trip that day, controlling the pace up front. He still barely held off his stablemate, who didn’t exactly flatter that form here last week. I see a couple of more interesting options with tactical speed. Harry Hood (#3) really seemed to improve when stretched out to marathon trips at Gulfstream last winter. His recent form has tailed off, but he was badly overmatched in the Man O’ War two back and then last time got hung out 5-wide into the clubhouse turn. He’s better than that and might be able to rebound as he stretches back out. Au Paradis (#4) is an intriguing new face at the level. He broke his maiden on dirt last time at Delaware against a pretty soft field. However, he’s more of a turf horse, and did look very much like a work in progress in his only two turf attempts at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this year. He’s bred to appreciate the added ground, and his tactical speed could make him a threat towards the front end. He’s definitely a horse I would want to use. My top pick is L’Antharis (#7). This horse is a bit of a mystery as he returns from a 13-month layoff and makes his first start in the United States. It’s tough to evaluate his French form, since he showed some promise early on before failing to make much of an impact in a series of handicaps last year. However, it’s fair to say that he didn’t get great trips or rides in quite a few of those starts. He was extremely wide every step of the way on both May 23 and June 26 of last year. He ran better on June 11 but even then got held up in traffic before running on belatedly. He may be better than his form suggests, and I find it intriguing that he’s now going out for Bill Mott. Two summers ago Team Valor and Mott sent out a European shipper, Mooney Love, to win a race just like this over a marathon trip at Saratoga. He surely gets the distance and should be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#7 L'ANTHARIS, at 9-2 or greater
#4 AU PARADIS, at 10-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Thursday, July 25
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 8 - 7 - 1A
Race 4: 10 - 9 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 1A/1 - 9 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 3 - 10
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 11 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 7 - 12 - 2
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
I want to take a shot against likely favorite Idea Generation (#7) as she returns from a layoff. I wasn’t really thrilled with any of this filly’s races from last season until she outran her odds to hold on for second in the 4-horse Waya at the end of the year. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure obviously makes her competitive here, but that’s a quintessential example of a horse getting dragged along to a fast number by a superior winner. Idea Generation was allowed to set a moderate pace over a yielding course, which naturally favors frontrunners. I’m not convinced that she really has much of an edge on this field, and she’s going to be a short price with Irad aboard. High Stick (#8) is a little more appealing as she stretches out to a marathon for the first time. The distance shouldn’t be an issue since she broke her maiden going 10 furlongs at Belmont last year. Her 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time at Monmouth is clearly the best number in this field outside of the favorite. She has the speed to get to the front against this field. My top pick is Justdeny (#5), who just broke her maiden going this distance. Some may be turned off by her lackluster speed figures, but I thought she took a step forward in victory last time. She didn’t have great position early in that race, going 3 to 4-wide without cover around the first turn before tucking in past the wire the first time. She then swung wide again on the far turn to make her winning bid, and found another gear when switching back to her left lead late. She strikes me as one that wants every bit of this distance and might be a 3-year-old who is just coming into her own.
Fair Value:
#5 JUSTDENY, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
I’m not necessarily against Pallotta Sisters (#9), the supremely logical favorite. She’s just a little too obvious as she drops in for a tag for the first time. I get that connections like to win at Saratoga, but this filly has real pedigree, out of Grade 1-placed dam Biofuel from the family of stakes winners Indian Pride and Tu Endei Wei. She looked like one that was just reaching top form in victory at Delaware last time. You would think that the connections would get more selling her at auction than offering her for $35k here, so the drop is a little strange to me. The problem is that I can’t go to the most logical alternative Elle Est Forte (#7), since she just wins so rarely and often settles for second. She did run well in a tougher spot a couple of months ago, but isn’t the kind of horse I want to endorse at a short price. My top pick is Next On Stage (#10), who should be a square price as she tries turf for the first time. She obviously has to improve on this surface, but there’s some evidence to suggest she may. She ran her best race as a 2-year-old in her lone start on synthetic at Gulfstream, appearing to get over that surface well. She’s since proven that she can go longer on dirt, so distance isn’t a question. As for turf, her sire Liam’s Map is a good influence, and her dam was campaigned as a turf horse, though not a very good one. Notably, her dam is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate, but she’s also a full-sister to Daddy D T, who was a stakes winner on turf. She also figures to play out as the controlling speed in a race lacking much pace.
Fair Value:
#10 NEXT ON STAGE, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
The Todd Pletcher entry is obviously going to be tough to deny if both halves wind up running in this spot. But it’s not as if either horse is particularly trustworthy. Unlimitedpotential (#1A) is the one who will garner much of the wagering support, and the connections are really just giving him away for this $16k tag. The one-time $750k 2-year-old purchase was highly regarded early in his career, finishing second in a very fast maiden event at Saratoga two years ago. Yet he never really delivered on the potential, and completely fell apart in the late stages of that most recent allowance attempt. While he’s obviously better than his rivals in here, I’m not convinced that he really wants to go this far, and you have to be a little concerned about his current form. Plus the outside post is far from ideal even after scratches. Over the past decade, posts 9 is just 2 for 50 going this distance on the dirt. The good news is that Todd Pletcher is 11 for 29 (38%, $2.88 ROI) first time for a tag with non-maidens at Saratoga over 5 years. That stat also applies to stablemate Whiskey N Soda (#1), who drew much better on the rail. He didn’t do much running last time at Monmouth but never had great position after getting away slowly. He’s some insurance for this entry if both start, but he’s not that appealing on his own. I think there’s opportunity to play against this pair. While Masterwork (#9) is the obvious alternative, I don’t like the trajectory of his form, and I don’t think he wants to go 9 furlongs even on a good day. His tendency to get rank early also does him no favors going this trip. My top pick is Paynter’s Prodigy (#3), who admittedly looks a little ridiculous at first glance. TimeformUS Speed Figures of 59 and 72 are not going to get it done here. Yet a viewing of this colt’s prior two races gives the impression that he may be a lot better than those numbers suggest. Racing for a low-level tag on debut, he won in dramatic fashion, rallying from off the pace after racing very greenly throughout. He then sold to new connections and tried synthetic at Gulfstream in January, where he got an even more eventful trip. He was off slowly, and got rank around the far turn before settling down. He then traveled well into the race, but got floated extremely wide around the far turn before staying on gamely. Now he’s had another 6 months to mature, which is significant for a 3-year-old. He also resurfaces in the capable barn of Pat Reynolds and picks up a strong rider in Manny Franco for his return. This horse has a look to him, and he figures to be a square price if the favored entry participates.
Fair Value:
#3 PAYNTER'S PRODIGY, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
Some key scratches have totally altered the pace scenario for Printrack (#6), who now looks like the controlling speed. This gelding has been so consistent since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s finished in the exacta in 11 consecutive starts, 9 of those for Rudy, and he’s taken full advantage of races at this level in recent months. While he does have some ability to make his own trips given his natural speed, he found himself in a pretty favorable scenario last time when setting a moderate pace before drawing off late. And now he might get the chance to be in the driver's seat once again. Magnolia Midnight (#5) should still sit a decent trip just off the pace. He’s another horse with speed, but he showed the ability to rate off Printrack last time. Perhaps he is now the one who has to apply more pressure with other speeds scratching out. I still think Reddington (#8) will sit a good trip, as he draws well outside of the favorite. The trip certainly didn’t work out for him last time when he jumped tracks exiting the chute, got steadied back, and then got extremely rank behind the leaders. He ultimately angled wide and stayed on pretty gamely for third considering that early trouble. This gelding has been a bit of a disappointment since the purchase earlier this year, but perhaps the slight turnback will work for him. I hope the connections adjust plans to allow him to stride forward early and apply pressure to the leaders. If he settles I think he's going to be difficult to hold off late.
Fair Value:
#8 REDDINGTON, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9
The scratch of Roses for Debra really changes the complexion of this race, as it ensures the horses who finished alongside her in the Intercontinental will be shorter prices. She should be fitter for this second start of the season. Future Is Now (#3) upset Roses for Debra in the Intercontinental, but that was the day to have her at odds of 10-1 when she was in razor sharp form coming off her Preakness week victory. It now remains to be seen if she can continue to perform at that level, especially racing beyond 5 furlongs, which has exposed her stamina limitations in the past. I think Kaufymaker (#4) is more dangerous. This mare runs by appointment only, but she does her best work when she can control up front in her races. She was able to get the lead in the Intercontinental but always had the winner breathing down her neck. She couldn’t get away from that rival in upper stretch, but still battled on gamely to the wire. Now she’s had a start under her belt, and has a right to move forward as she finally puts races back to back. Wesley Ward is 20 for 55 (36%, $2.31 ROI) second off 150 to 300 day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years, and is 6 for 16 (38%, $2.62 ROI) in stakes within that sample. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates she’s quick enough to make the front again, and she could force Future Is Now into a stalking position if able to outrun that rival to the quarter. I think she’s now the horse to beat, but there isn’t much value in putting her on top. The most intriguing new challenger is Star Guest (#11), who draws into the field from the AE list after the favorite’s scratch. This filly really came to hand when turned back to sprints last summer, impressively reeling off a pair of handicap victories at Newmarket. Those were lesser races but she gave the impression of a horse with real quality in her decisive victories. She was off for a long time after that, but returned in good form in early May. While she lost that return race, she traveled well into the late stages, taking over before just coming up short in the final furlong. She figures to benefit from that run, and she strikes me as one who should be suited by this further slight turnback in distance.
Fair Value:
#11 STAR GUEST, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 10
It’s a little strange to see so many maiden special weight dropdowns from the same June 14 race returning in this $40k maiden claimers, especially since that was a fast race for the level. Runner-up Dakota Country (#12) would have been formidable in a maiden special weight on Friday’s card, but the connections opt for this spot instead, unfortunately drawing the outside post. This horse got a great trip last time, taking full advantage of inside position as he just snuck up the inside on a day when the rail seemed like a minor advantage on the outer turf at Aqueduct. I prefer Koru (#7) from that same race since he was at least closing outside on the far turn before staying on for fourth in the stretch. He’s another dropdown that seems a little unnecessary, but Chad Brown is obviously trying to win races at this meet. English Castle (#10) is a tough call since he was his own worst enemy last time, getting rank into the clubhouse turn. He’s just lacked some finish in his last couple of races and is tough to take even on the drop. Given the presence of all these dropdowns, perhaps I’m overcomplicating this race by looking for a bigger price who has already competed for a tag. I just get the sense that Temple Creed (#3) is a horse with upside. He looked like one who needed the experience on debut. He actually broke well and briefly went up to contest an honest pace before backing off into the turn. He settled inside and got a good trip but was trying to lug in through the stretch as Eric Cancel attempted to straighten him out. He still finished well considering his general greenness. Tom Morley does much better with second time starters than first time starters (71 vs 21 Trainer Rating in TimeformUS). He’s drawn better than some of his main rivals and I think he’s going to take a step forward. This might be a tough spot, but the price should compensate.
Fair Value:
#3 TEMPLE CREED, at 7-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Wednesday, July 24
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 8 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 10 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 9 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 1A - 9
Race 6: 2 - 9 - 4 - 3 (Dirt: 12 - 14 - 4 - 1)
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4 (Dirt: 2 - 13 - 12 - 11)
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 10 - 2 (Dirt: 4 - 8 - 7 - 12)
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Among those with experience, Out On Bail (#10) looks like the one to beat as he switches to turf for the first time. He handled a sloppy, sealed track on debut much better than he did fast going last time. Though even that recent defeat looks better in retrospect after Mo Plex went on to win the Sanford. I don’t mind him switching to turf as a son of Tiz the Law, whose progeny have already won 2 of 5 turf attempts with 4 hitting the board. Yet this race is also filled with interesting first time starters going out for capable barns. Wesley Ward typically has to be respected with horses like Pandemic Hero (#1), who is by excellent debut and turf sprint sire Munnings. There’s enough turf on the dam’s side for this one to handle the surface. The firster who might attract the most support is Pay the Juice (#7). He sold for $200k after working a furlong in 10-flat at the OBS March sale. While Omaha Beach isn’t the best turf influence, there’s grass on the dam’s side and he’s reportedly working well for McGaughey. I even think firster Strand Road (#4) is a little interesting based on his OBS June work where he looked like one that should take to grass. Astern is an excellent turf sprint sire, and the dam is a half-sister to turf horse English Soul. This barn isn't known for debut success, but he'll be a big price. My top pick is Iron Max (#3). Jeremiah Englehart has already sent out some live 2-year-old firsters at this meet, though he has most of his success on dirt with those types. This colt is by excellent turf influence Caravaggio, best known as the sire of two-time Diana winner Whitebeam. This is the female family of Kentucky Derby winner Orb, but the dam has produced a couple of foals who preferred turf despite not winning over it. I really liked the visual of a workout last month where he was going better than dirt sprinter Enfuega. He has really nice extension to his stride, looking like one that may ultimately want more ground, but he seems forward enough to win on debut.
Fair Value:
#3 IRON MAX, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
I acknowledge that Chasing Daylight (#9) looks pretty formidable at first glance, but she’s not exactly the most trustworthy win candidate. She got on a roll late last season, winning 3 of 4 starts including two victories after the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. However, her form after that was all over the place. She was basically getting eased in the stretch of a few starts through late winter, appearing to resent racing inside of horses. The good news is that she’s bounced back in her last couple of starts, running two of the fastest speed figures of her career. She also ran into a horse in razor sharp form last time when beaten by Smokin’ Hot Kitty, who has now won her last 4 dirt races in a row, including a 6 3/4 length romp here last week. The problem is that Chasing Daylight is now so obvious, resulting in a very short price, and I can’t shake the feeling that she still has a bit of unpredictability about her. Coming up with an alternative isn’t easy and I’m not thrilled with most of the options. Malu (#7) could attract some attention of her victory here 7 days ago where she was beating up on inferior competition. However, she is claimed back by Linda Rice, who does well off the claim as well as with quick turnarounds like this. Duckphat (#2) figures to get ignored for low profile connections, but she's run plenty of speed figures that make her competitive here and nearly won up here last summer. My top pick is Scarlet’s Dream (#4). She’s another who looks inconsistent at first glance, but the outlook is a little more hopeful when you parse her races. I can throw out the turf race two back, since she just doesn’t care for that surface. She actually ran well going this distance in her second career start, earning a competitive 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure as a 2-year-old. Her subsequent dirt route in January looks disappointing, but she was wide every step of the way against one of the strongest rail biases of the entire year in New York. Since then she’s gotten back to some better efforts on the dirt, and her last race is better than it looks. She was traveling well in behind the leaders, but got put into very tight quarters approaching the stretch and could just never extricate herself from traffic to make a run until it was too late. Now she gets a significant rider upgrade from an apprentice to Tyler Gaffalione.
Fair Value:
#4 SCARLET'S DREAM, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
Linda Rice will only go with Barron’s Bounce (#5) after scratching likely favorite Big Ego, who I was against. This horse is only a little more convincing to get this one-mile distance on dirt, but I just have some concerns about his overall quality. He’s another son of Flatter who Rice has avoided stretching out on dirt until this point. He did have early trouble when checked and shuffled out of position on the backstretch last time. Yet he seems to be a little one-paced and you’re not going to get much price on him with Irad taking over. My top pick is Stanley Rough (#8). This gelding ran pretty well on debut behind the classier Mama’s Dream, staying on well for third while closing into a slow pace. He subsequently lost at a short price on May 25, but was really hitting his best stride in the late stages, just running out of ground. Given that style, I think cutting him back to 6 furlongs last time was the wrong move. He was outrun from the start and could never get involved against a winner that was a maiden special weight quality dropdown. Now he stretches out, and he has the stride length and cadence to suggest this longer distance will suit him. It’s not like he has to improve that much on his debut to beat the Rice pair.
Fair Value:
#8 STANLEY ROUGH, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
Overacting (#7) figures to vie for favoritism as she gets back on turf for popular connections. She really hasn’t run a bad race in any of her turf starts, and she won over this course on debut last summer. She led from gate to wire that day, but she’s since learned to rate, using those tactics to win off the layoff in April. I just thought she got a great trip that day, and she may need to improve again to beat this field at a short price. Spooky Lady (#3) is her main rival and it’s hard to knock her recent form. She outrun her odds to finish third against a tougher open company field off the layoff in April in a performance that would make her tough here. However, I don’t think she’s run as well in two subsequent starts, including last time when she had no excuse to get caught after setting a slow pace. I would much rather take Snowy Evening (#9) out of that spot since she was closing best of all into those dawdling fractions. She didn’t run well against stakes company 9 days later, but she was probably hustled into that spot. This is more realistic, and she’s reunited with winning jockey Jose Ortiz. At a price Munny Grab (#4) is a little interesting as she finally drops back into New York-bred company. She was overmatched in the Memories of Silver, and then was never really given a fair chance last time after getting rank when spun wide into the clubhouse turn. I could use her in exotics. My top pick is Im Just Kiddin (#2). At first glance she might look like more of a turf sprinter, so it will seem curious that the connections are stretching her back out. Yet I don’t think she’s gotten great trips in several of her turf route attempts. That was certainly true here last year on July 19 when she was wide every step of the way, as well as on Aug. 16 when she was part of an extremely fast pace that collapsed. This will be her first turf route since then, and she is coming off a layoff. John Kimmel’s runners can sometimes need a start, but he is 3 for 18 (17%, $2.51 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs on turf over 5 years. She should get the right pocket trip from this post. I typically try to avoid horses that could take Irad money, and this one may attract support based on that and some flashy workouts, so we’ll see if the fair price is realistic.
Fair Value:
#2 IM JUST KIDDIN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
My primary opinion in this Honorable Miss is that I want to play against Munnys Gold (#8). She owns the fastest speed figures in this field, but she still has some questions to ask as she’s working her way back to stakes company. She was so fast and precocious at the start of her career, and it’s unclear if she’s really developed much since those auspicious starts to her 2 and 3-year-old campaigns. Her return from a layoff last time was solid, but she was beating weaker allowance foes and wasn’t exactly striding out across the wire. Now she’s stepping up against a tougher field, is forced to come off Lasix, which she’s never won without, and has to deal with other speed. Perhaps the fastest rival in the early stages is Spirit Wind (#6), who is the only one to register TimeformUS Speed Figures that compare to the favorite. She showed a new dimension, rating off speed before taking over last time at Lone Star, so I wonder if Mike Smith will look to use the same tactics here. I question her overall class, but she goes out for a dangerous barn and can pop a big effort from time to time. Any pace the develops will obviously suit Sterling Silver (#5). She’s run races that put her squarely in the mix against this field, and they all might be running for second if she could get back to her Gallant Bloom performance. Her results since then have been a mixed bag, but I don’t want to be hard on her for losing to Alva Starr and Vahva. She did disappoint as a heavy favorite last time against New York-breds, though she didn’t get the best ride as Javier Castellano might have overcommitted to the rail. Still that’s a reminder that she sometimes can run out of ground going 6 furlongs. Given the distance, I give the edge to Clearly Unhinged (#4). She always looked capable of doing more in that 4-year-old return two back, and last time she absolutely blazed the opening quarter, outrunning the extremely fast B G Warrior to the lead before that filly faded to last. From there she just ran them off their feet. She showed last year that she’s not a need the lead type, but I won’t be surprised if Joel Rosario is aggressive again. Steve Asmussen is extremely dangerous with his top sprinters. Over the past 5 years, he is 22 for 57 (39%, $2.74 ROI) with 3-year-old and up last-out winners in dirt sprint graded stakes. He hasn’t started that many horses at the meet so far, but this one looks like she’s sitting on another big effort.
Fair Value:
#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Paros (#11) will attract support off his victory at this level last time where he overcame stretch traffic to win. However, he got a great trip up until having to alter course in the lane, saving all the ground, using his speed to spurt clear late. Now he’s drawn in a far outside post, and will have to use more stamina to win from this position. Bourbon Day (#2) has been a productive claim for Brad Cox, winning an optional claimer last time against a softer field than this. There’s nothing particularly clever about him, but he’s remarkably consistent and drew a great post with a top rider, so I don’t want to let him beat me. There isn’t much pace in this field, so the door is open for someone to get aggressive. At one time Street Ready (#4) would have been a candidate to do that, but his recent form leaves quite a bit to be desired. He wasn’t a great claim for $100k last year, but Mike Maker is now getting realistic. Perhaps the return to Saratoga can wake up Safe Conduct (#6), another with plenty of back class. I won’t be too hard on him for the Gulfstream efforts since this horse has almost never run well in Florida. He has the tactical speed to get forward against this group, and could take them a long way up front if he can still run at all. Phil Serpe runners do generally seem to wake up and perform at their best during the Saratoga meet. My top pick is American Diamond (#5). This horse has more tactical speed than he’s been showing in recent starts at Churchill Downs. I wonder if he just didn’t care for that course, since he never looked like he was striding out freely in those recent races. He’s a runner who usually struggles with his lead changes, but he hung on his left lead all the way through the lane in both Churchill starts. He had previously run well enough to win here in March, and I like that he’s reunited with Tyler Gaffalione, who has placed him more forwardly when he’s ridden him in the past.
Fair Value:
#5 AMERICAN DIAMOND, at 9-2 or greater
#6 SAFE CONDUCT, at 10-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 21
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10: 4 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 11: 5 - 8 - 12 - 10
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Java Buzz (#5) has some red flags around him as he returns from a 16-month layoff. He has races in his past that would make him awfully tough for this field to handle, but he’s had some lengthy gaps in his form, and now he’s turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs off the layoff. I think this horse is best going a little farther than this, and he won’t get his preferred frontrunning trip this time. The horse to beat is probably Musical Maestro (#6), who really took to turf when he finally got on that surface last time, outrunning his 31-1 odds to just miss. I would say this is a lateral class move even though he’s dropping in for a tag this time, and he drew much better in the middle of the pack. He’s the most likely winner, but he won’t be anything close to the price he was last time. I had to give Kreesa (#2) another look after he got a very conservative ride two back in a race where the pace held together. I was hoping he would have run better last time, but he is now getting some class relief and should be picking up pieces late. My top pick is Royal King (#3), who is getting back on turf for the first time since the summer of 2023. He had struck me as a horse that would really appreciate the switch to turf when he first got on it at Belmont, and he outran his odds to just miss at 12-1. They then attempted to stretch him out at Parx where he chased an extremely fast pace over a tiring course and he fell apart. He’s since returned on dirt and ran well off the claim for these connections last time. He’s moving up in class, but I think he’s really going to appreciate the switch back to grass. This gelding is extremely fast early and might be able to run these off their feet.
Fair Value:
#3 ROYAL KING, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
The two favorites in this Shuvee are obviously formidable. Raging Sea (#3) was a talented 2-year-old, but took a while to build on that form when she returned last year. However, she seems to have turned a corner since returning for her 4-year-old campaign, registering a career-best 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her decisive Doubledogdare score. She just missed hitting the board against the best in her division last time in the Ogden Phipps but still ran well within the context of a paceless race. We saw Soul of an Angel, who was also pace-compromised that day, return to just miss by a nose to Idiomatic on Saturday at Monmouth. Main rival Shotgun Hottie (#1) really came to hand around this time last year when winning a pair of stakes at Monmouth, topped by a Molly Pitcher score in which she defeated Grade 1 winner Search Results and future Breeders’ Cup Distaff third-place finisher Le Da Vida. Something clearly went wrong after that for her to miss the rest of the season, and it took her a little while to round back into form this winter. Yet she seems to be hitting her stride now. She was an unlucky loser in the Fleur De Lis last time when trying to squeeze through a tight opening along the rail. She wants every bit of this 9-furlong distance and possesses dangerous tactical speed from the rail. The only alternative to this pair that I would take seriously is Just Katherine (#5). She got the better of Raging Sea last summer when that one was still working her way back to peak fitness. She looked like she might be on the precipice of making an impact on the upper levels of her division last year before failing to show up in the Cotillion. She then put forth a few lackluster efforts, but I wouldn’t be too hard on her for the Bayakoa loss since she had significant trouble after the start. She cut back in distance in the Bed O Roses last time and might have been best after again getting squeezed back after the break. She handles this longer distance and may be heading in the right direction again.
Fair Value:
#5 JUST KATHERINE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
Firsttimeinforever (#7) is the horse to beat once again as she makes her fourth start on the NYRA circuit since shipping in from California. However, she’s starting to have the look of a money burner after losing her last 3 outing at odds of 2-1 or less. She has had some excuses along the way, such as when she got sawed off in traffic when attempting to rally two back. Then last time she made the first move to take over in a race that featured an honest pace before tiring. That distance is probably a tad too far for her, and she’ll appreciate the slight turnback here. I just don’t want to settle for another short price on her. Roagna (#1) was in that same May 25 race where Firsttimeinforever had such obvious trouble. While Roagna didn’t experience as much traffic as that rival, she didn’t have an ideal trip, chasing wide around the track. I still wish she would have won shown more punch through the stretch, and I’m starting to wonder if she just beat a bad field on debut last fall. Awesome Czech (#3) is a little more appealing as she makes her second start off a layoff. She was placed in some pretty tough open company spots in her last few starts, including when she just missed in the Tepin last year after setting a slow pace. She was no match for the winner last time in the Wild Applause with a good trip, but still was hardly disgraced against a tougher field. She fits well against this allowance field. My top pick is Boxed Wine (#2), who had a different kind of trip in that June 23 affair. She was chasing a run-off early leader, doing so while never inside leading the main pack. That’s the kind of trip that can really drain a horse’s stamina, and it was her first time going 9 furlongs, so I want to forgive her for failing to finish in the late stages. Now she’s drawn well inside and should be able to get a better trip sitting in the pocket. She also ran better than it looks two back when getting shuffled back into the stretch before running on late.
Fair Value:
#2 BOXED WINE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
This is the rare Saratoga 2-year-old maiden even in July where horses with experience outnumber the first time starters. There are just two of those in the latter category, both going out for top barns. Between them I prefer Kiss Me Slow (#1), did look slightly second best in her last gate drill but nevertheless registered a fast time. I just worry that she’s a horse who is bred to go longer, and she has to overcome the rail. The same can be said of Immersive (#7), who hasn’t been as forward as you’d like to see in her morning training. I’m not sure how strong of a group this is overall, so I wouldn’t be surprised by either of these, but I wanted to lean towards experience. The logical second time starter is Black Dog (#3), who ran well on debut at Churchill Downs for Tom Amoss. She was pretty keen through the early stages while rated down the backstretch, but did produce a nice finish when asked to go late. I won’t be surprised if she possesses more speed this time. Laughing Lady (#2) is the only one switching surfaces for her second start after debuting on turf. While she does have turf pedigree on the dam’s side, she’s by Practical Joke and seems like a highly developed sort who should be strong enough to transition to dirt. Tony Dutrow is the kind of trainer who typically does better with second time starters. My top pick is Spun Candy (#8), who makes her second start for Dallas Stewart after finishing fifth on debut at Churchill. This filly was outrun early, chasing wide on the turn before staying on late to just miss third despite hanging on her left lead for the entire stretch drive. The winner of that race disappointed in the Schuylerville, but the runner-up came back to improve by 5 TimeformUS points in her next start. Dallas Stewart is underrated with his 2-year-olds, and I think she’s really going to appreciate the added furlong of this race.
Fair Value:
#8 SPUN CANDY, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 11
From a class standpoint, there’s little doubt that Hush of a Storm (#12) is the horse to beat. He has faced significantly better competition through most of his recent open company starts. He was no match for the likes of Funtastic Again back in January before winning an allowance event in March. He was then off for a few months and got a race in at Presque Isle last time for this return to turf and New York-bred company. He has done his best work on the all-weather surfaces, but he did run well on turf here last year, winning a race at this level in May 2023. The only problem is that he has to overcome a disadvantageous outside post position. I’m not thrilled with the others who could take money in this race, and wanted to explore a couple of price options. One of those is Locke and Key (#8), who finally got back on turf last time after a series of solid dirt efforts. While he didn’t run that well on turf early in his career, he has since developed into a much better athlete, and he proved last time that he can transition his improved form back to grass. He just didn’t get the right trip that day, as he was out of position early and found room inside too late. Now he gets a rider upgrade to Frankie Dettori. My top pick Bar Fourteen (#5) finished ahead of that rival when they met at this level last time. He got a good trip up front and just couldn’t hold off a late surge from the classy Danzigwiththestars. Yet I really liked the tenacity he displayed that day, and he had a minor excuse two back when getting cut off in the stretch. He’s gotten back into much better form lately, and now he makes his first start off the claim for the sharp Pat Reynolds. He gets a switch to a more aggressive rider in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of speed, and they don’t offer him up for the tag this time.
Fair Value:
#5 BAR FOURTEEN, at 6-1 or greater
#8 LOCKE AND KEY, at 8-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 20
by David Aragona
PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 2: 1A - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 10 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 8 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 11: 3 - 5 - 4
Race 12: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3 — #4 HE HAS IT ALL, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 6 — #4 GOLDEN ROCKET, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8 — #3 GUN IT, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 10 — #1 GAVEA, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 12 — #3 ARTEMPUS, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, July 19
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 8 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 10 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 3 - 9
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Neither of the uncoupled Chad Brown runners offers that much appeal at expected short prices. Dea Matrona (#8) probably has the better overall form since she’s faced significantly better company in both starts in North America. I didn’t think she ran that well last time, but she also didn’t get the best trip, traveling 3-wide throughout. I find the quality of It’s Hot in Here (#9) to be tougher to peg. She showed some promise in her debut last year, but was beating a soft field at the Meadowlands and then did not running in her return last time. That was a field of similar quality to the one Dea Matrona faced, and It’s Hot in Here had trouble keeping up at every stage of the race. At first glance Wings Like Eagles (#4) might look like a logical alternative to the Brown pair. Yet I find this mare just as difficult to trust given her propensity to find trouble. She tends to break slowly and get rank during her races, which is a terrible combination, since it often sees her steadying out of position at the back of the pack. It’s tough to time her move properly, and I worry about what kind of trip she’ll pull under Eric Cancel. Magic Eight Ball (#2) is stepping up in class out of a maiden claiming victory where she beat a much softer field than this. Yet she accomplished that win pretty convincingly, opening up a clear margin down the backstretch and maintaining that advantage to the wire. Her 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up pretty well against this group, and there doesn’t appear to be that much pace signed on. My top pick is From Hello (#3). This filly showed the kind of performance she’s capable of producing two back when just missing against an allowance field with a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She wasn’t able to replicate that result last time, but the trip had a lot to do with that. She resented getting rated so far off the pace early, getting rank into the clubhouse turn. Katie Davis then allowed her to move too freely up the inside, making a premature move at the half-mile pole before getting shuffled back again. I’m hoping for a smoother journey this time with brother Dylan getting back aboard. I know she fits from a class perspective, and she figures to be the right price.
Fair Value:
#3 FROM HELLO, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
The two fillies who finished directly behind the talented Munnys Gold on June 7 look like top contenders in this first-level allowance going the same 6-furlong distance as last time. Roswell (#7) got closest to that heavily favored winner late, launching a strong bid from mid-pack to finish fastest of all across the wire. This Bill Mott trainee bounced back from a minor disappointment at Churchill in May, where she just couldn’t handle some added ground. She loves this shorter distance, and there appears to be speed signed on to set up her rally. Sam’s Treasure (#4) didn’t have a major excuse in settling for third behind Roswell last time, but I wonder if she’ll get handled more aggressively here. Joel Rosario left the gate with clear intentions to rate her on June 7 while her Ward-trained stablemate went up to press the pace. This time she figures to make better use of her tactical speed, but she still needs a slight step forward to turn the tables on the likely favorite. The obvious alternative to these two is recent Churchill maiden winner Princess Madison (#9), who was visually impressive in that most recent victory. However, her 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure is pretty light compared to others in this field. She’s also stepping up against much tougher company after beating a maiden field that lacked much depth of talent. My top pick is Do Gooder (#1), who will be turning back to the shortest distance she’s ever attempted. She’s also getting some class relief after facing Grade 2 stakes company twice in a row this spring before encountering the classy Ways and Means when finally dropped to this level last time. She ran better than the results suggest in all of those races. She got shuffled back in traffic into the clubhouse turn of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and then got steadied multiple times through the opening quarter of that June 6 allowance affair before getting keen racing in a pocket. She’s produced some very quick workout times since then, showing off her natural speed. She was involved in some fast paces in her first couple of starts against maidens, which leads me to believe that she will be suited to this shorter distance. Her pedigree would suggest the same since her dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed dirt sprinter Bobby Abu Dhabi.
Fair Value:
#1 DO GOODER, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 10
Geopolitics (#4) figures to go favored here as she drops out of a New York Stallion Series stakes into this maiden event. She’s finished second in all 3 starts, losing by narrow margins each time, so she’s due to break through. I just wonder if turf is really the best surface for her. If she was really loving the grass, I thought she might have won that last race where she got the trip she was looking for and still got run down by Soloshot. I’m not sure she’s actually getting much class relief in this maiden event, and there is other speed signed on. Among those who could apply pressure is Heart of the Night (#3), whose last race was flattered when winner Strictly Taboo came right back to beat allowance company in her next start. She rated that day, but has shown the speed to get forward position in the past. A couple of runners exit the June 21 race at this level from Aqueduct. I had been interested in Better Be Smart (#9) getting on turf that day and I thought she took to the grass pretty well. However, she would need another step forward to beat what is a tougher field this time. Splashy (#6) is probably the better option from that race, since she never had great position racing wide on the turn before making some mild late progress in a race that was won on the front end. She’s already had 8 chances but has only sprinted on turf a couple of times and might actually appreciate the shorter distance of this race. My top pick is Starsinthecity (#5), who returns from a layoff for Linda Rice. Like so many runners for that barn, she clearly needed her debut last October, and took a big step forward in her second start. She showed good gate speed in that Nov. 2 turf route, leading until getting overhauled in the last furlong. She’s been off since last year, and I find it interesting that Rice is turning her back to a sprint for her return. Linda Rice is 8 for 27 (30%, $2.12 ROI) with turnbacks off 150-300 day layoffs over 5 years, though primarily on dirt. This filly has more of a sprint action with quick, shorter strides, and City of Light is a 17% turf sprint sire. Furthermore, her dam is a half-sister to good turf sprinters Not Phar Now and Icy Flavor. She gets Lasix and picks up Jose Ortiz.
Fair Value:
#5 STARSINTHECITY, at 6-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Thursday, July 18
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 3: 9 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 6 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 10 - 3
Race 7: 10 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 7 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 10: 4 - 3 - 1 - 8
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
Though it’s only an 8-horse field, I found this to be one of the toughest races on the card. None of these horses are particularly trustworthy, and they’re converging in this $50k claimer coming from a variety of class levels. Iridescent (#7) seems likely to attract support off the claim back by Brad Cox, who had this horse at the start of his career. However, he spent a good chunk of time in the David Jacobson barn, and I’m reluctant to take horses claimed away from that stable. He has races that make him competitive here, but I preferred others. Squints (#3) seems fairly logical as he looks to improve on a trio of runner-up results through his recent starts. He got involved in a quick pace last time and held on well for second behind a closing winner. He has to get 7 furlongs here but did win his debut going this far. Sweet Soddy J (#8) exits that same Laurel race on June 28 where he got a wider trip while chasing the pace. He never got past Squints but was staying on decently to the wire. He now goes out for a new barn and takes the blinkers off, having some races in his past that would make him tough here. My top pick is Tommy Two Socks (#6). This colt is a bit of a one-number horse, as only his 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he received in his maiden score makes him competitive with this bunch. Yet he really hasn’t had a fair chance in his two dirt stats on either side of that victory. He was facing a very tough maiden field going two turns back in March, and then last time was eliminated at the start and then further compromised by a slow pace behind graded stakes quality winner General Partner. He’s back at the right distance and should get an aggressive ride from Luis Saez.
Fair Value:
#6 TOMMY TWO SOCKS, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
I’m not sure about the overall quality of that June 21 maiden event that both Moon Gate (#9) and Abientot (#2) exit. I definitely prefer the latter based on trips. This Mark Casse trainee was wide every step of the way and still stayed on decently for fourth, beaten less than a length by the Clement runner. Mark Casse has gotten off to a strong start at this Saratoga meet, and this might just be a filly who improves with a race under her belt. Yet there are some intriguing first time starters to consider outside of this pair. Brindi (#10), the other Christophe Clement runner, picks up Irad Ortiz for the debut and certainly has a pedigree for these conditions. This $195k overseas purchase is by excellent turf sprint sire No Nay Never out of a dam who is a full-sister to Group 1 winning turf sprinter Emaraaty Ana. She just has to overcome the outside draw. Gathered (#3) has a nice pedigree for Graham Motion, who is capable with turf sprint debut runners. Collected is turning into a decent turf sire, and the dam has produced multiple stake winner Divine Miss Grey, who was more of a dirt horse. My top pick is the other Mark Casse trainee Will Reign (#5). This first time starter is by War of Will, who certainly has a right to develop into a turf sire as a Grade 1 winner on that surface. While there isn’t a ton of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, this filly is bred to be precocious. The second dam won early in her 2-year-old season, and the dam is a half-sister to Bashford Manor runner-up Owen’s Leap. I really liked her July 22 workout where she was clearly superior in company, opening up with big strides. It’s a good sign that Flavien Prat takes the mount.
Fair Value:
#5 WILL REIGN, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
This starter allowance out of the Wilson Chute is highly competitive, as you can build a case for just about every runner in the field. I don’t want to settle for a short price on Reserve Currency (#7), who could go favored as he makes his first start off the Mike Maker claim while picking up Irad Ortiz. He got back to his better form on the dropdown last time but did so with a great trip, riding the inside path into the stretch on a day when the rail was an advantage. Now he’s moving way up in class and I think others will offer better value. Principe d’Oro (#2) got a wide trip at this level last time after being eliminated at the start two back. He’s better than his two efforts for Gustavo Rodriguez suggest, and he’s reportedly training well. Lucency (#9) might be the horse to beat if he repeat his effort two back when just missing at this level. Yet he was running back just 9 days after getting claimed away from Rick Dutrow and it’s fair to wonder if his last race is evidence that he’s starting to tail off for this barn. Night Effect (#8) feels like the kind of horse that will get somewhat overlooked because he goes out for lower profile connections, even though he’s run nothing but competitive races through his recent dirt starts. He has the tactical speed to get forward from a good post position for this distance. I also like him cutting back to the one-mile trip after stretching out to two turns and beyond through his last three races. My top pick is Two for Charging (#10), who moves back up in class after getting a confidence-building win at a lower class while making his first start as a new gelding. His effort was better than the 3/4-length margin of victory suggests, as he got shuffled back while waiting in traffic to the quarter pole before getting clear along the inside in the lane. Most horses would get discouraged after losing momentum like that, but he found another gear to win easily. That’s proven to be a stronger race than it appeared at the time with longshot Sin Nombre returning to win his next start with an improved speed figure. This 5-year-old has struggled with consistency but perhaps he’s now ready to put it all together as a gelding. I don’t mind the outside draw for him, and Prat retains the mount.
Fair Value:
#10 TWO FOR CHARGING, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Camera (#11) figures to vie for favoritism here as she makes her second turf start for Todd Pletcher. She made a pretty comfortable lead last time but got challenged when surrounded by rivals at the quarter pole before battling on gamely for second. She earned a strong 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, making her the fastest horse in this field. Pletcher adds blinkers, which likely gives away the game plan. However, there is plenty of speed in this field, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a quick and contested pace. A hot pace would help recent maiden winners like Mixologist (#9) and Dancing Dean (#6). The former was impressive taking her debut from well off the pace at Churchill. This daughter of Frosted has a huge turf pedigree on the dam’s side, being a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winners on turf, Princess Grace and Catnip. She’s pretty talented but has to avoid dropping so far back early this time. The same goes for Dancing Dean, who took advantage of a quick pace when she broke her maiden at Aqueduct last month. She had shown some promise as a 2-year-old, and now gets Lasix in her second start off the layoff. The horse to beat might be Grayosh (#5), who can make her own kind of trip from mid-pack. She showed the tactical speed to lay close to the pace in her debut and maiden victory, finishing powerfully into soft paces each time. She was perhaps a little overmatched last time in the Wonder Again, but she also didn’t get the most comfortable trip, moving into a precarious spot at the quarter pole before having to alter course behind traffic in upper stretch. She’s better than that and now takes a logical step down to the allowance ranks. One horse who was forwardly placed last time but might have more versatility than she displayed that day is Wrigleyville (#7). She led from gate to wire in her maiden score at Monmouth, and opened up on that field with authority in upper stretch before coasting home. She did benefit from a slow pace, but showed excellent finishing speed to finish it off that day. She gets a big rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, who isn’t the most aggressive jockey and will probably be happy to slot in behind the speeds. She certainly has the pedigree to pan out on this surface as a daughter of Grade 1 winner Marketing Mix. She still must improve a bit, but the likely price makes her an appealing option with upside.
Fair Value:
#7 WRIGLEYVILLE, at 6-1 or greater
Race Day Live
