TimeformUS Race Analysis (2024)

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 7

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 8 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

Spirit of St Louis (#1) is clearly the one to beat in his current form, seeking his fifth stakes victory in a row. He’s won 7 of his last 8 starts, showing remarkable versatility, winning from a stalking position, coming from off the pace, and even handling dirt last time. He beat main rival City Man (#5) twice last season, getting the jump on that one in both the Ashley T. Cole and Mohawk. City Man got the better of his rival prior to that in the West Point, but was able to capitalize on a ground-saving trip. He’s unlikely to work out that kind of journey here from the outside post unless Joel Rosario gets creative. He's run well off layoffs before, but Spirit of St Louis’s recency and tactical speed may give him the edge in this rematch. However, I don’t think they are the only two who can win this race. Jerry the Nipper (#2) didn't have much luck that same series of New York-bred stakes last year, getting beaten by either or both of today’s favorites on three consecutive occasions. Yet he didn’t get ideal trips during those races, and was again unlucky late last year in the Fort Lauderdale, where he got checked on the backstretch before rerallying. Since then he traveled to Barbados and then got rained off the turf in his last start, so his form is obscured. I still think he’s better than those recent results suggest, and he has a chance to do better getting back in the right spot with Irad Ortiz taking over.

Fair Value:
#2 JERRY THE NIPPER, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

Silver Skillet (#5) is obviously the one to beat in this Port Washington. She’s attempting to win her second New York-bred stakes in a row, and is going to take plenty of money based on her blowout victory in the Mount Vernon. However, that was a dirt race that was rained off the grass. While she is more of a turf horse overall, I think her talents might get overrated based on the last effort. Her turf races still make her a deserving favorite, but she’s not exactly a standout. She has run well against some tough competition, such as when she was fourth in the Pebbles last season, but she was a little disappointing coming off the layoff in April when working out a tough trip. She figures to play out as the main speed here. The short price that I’m against is Marvelous Maude (#1). We haven’t seen much of this mare over the last two seasons, making just one start in 2023 before returning from an 11-month layoff last time in the Plenty of Grace. She was a little wide throughout, but was still extremely disappointing, never looking like a threat. It’s possible that she’s just lost a step at the age of 6. My top pick is Snowy Evening (#2). She obviously has to improve a bit to beat this field, but she’s been steadily rounding back into form since returning from the layoff this season. She was racing too close to the pace against open company off the layoff, and then wasn’t suited by the turnback to 6 furlongs two back. Yet those races seemed to move her forward, as she improved going a mile last time. She made a strong late rally to get up for second, closing into a glacial early pace. Her pace-upgraded 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive here. I don’t think she has to sit that far back in a compact field, and she possesses the sprint finish to make a serious run at the favorites if she’s within range at the quarter pole.

Fair Value:
#2 SNOWY EVENING, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

There really isn’t any meaningful form to scrutinize in this New York-bred maiden affair for 2-year-olds. A horse like Richard Ave (#8) could take money just due to connections, with Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz in his corner. Yet he didn’t do any significant running on debut, and doesn’t exactly have a huge turf pedigree. We don’t yet know much about McKinzie as a sire, and there isn’t immediate dam’s side turf breeding, though second dam Floating Heart was a turf and synthetic stakes performer. Among the firsters, McDiesel (#2) has the best workouts, but it’s a little strange that he’s entered to debut on turf. He doesn’t have much pedigree for this aside from sire Twirling Candy, whose progeny win 15% of their turf sprint starts and 18% of career debuts. Caddiemaster (#9) is another without a ton of turf pedigree, though Liam’s Map is a decent influence. He appears to be working well and Horacio De Paz can have a first time starter ready for its debut. My top pick is another horse trying the surface for the first time. Dancing Bear (#3) showed little in his dirt debut, but he’s supposed to appreciate the switch to grass. Progeny of War Dancer don’t typically win first out, but that sire’s progeny win 15% of their turf sprint starts. There’s also a little turf on the dam’s side, and this colt travels like a horse who should be much more comfortable striding over turf. He should be a pretty generous price going out for lower profile connections, and I don’t think he has to be a future star on the surface to win this race.

Fair Value:
#3 DANCING BEAR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

Scoring Chance (#1) might go favored here as she turns back in distance and gets winning debut rider Irad Ortiz back in the irons. She ran pretty well that day, but did benefit from a ground-saving trip on a day when the rail was an advantage. She didn’t get the most comfortable trip in the slop next time and lacked a rally going longer in her most recent start. She has a right to do better here, but I’m just not convinced that she’s necessarily more talented than other contenders, so I didn’t want to settle for a short price. Foxy Cara (#7) has earned faster speed figures in almost all of her recent starts. And she ran some speed figures that would absolutely bury this field back in 2023. The problem is that she just doesn’t win. She’s picked up 12 second and third-place finishes to go along with her lone career victory. She’s hard to endorse on the win end, but I do think turning back will benefit her. Scarlet’s Dream (#3) has to get a little faster to contend here, but she had some valid excuses over the winter, racing wide against a rail bias on Jan. 19 before getting stuck on a dead rail on Mar. 3. She chased home a decent winner in Concerti two back, and now gets back on her preferred surface after a turf experiment. My top pick is Carol T (#2). She had shown promise in her debut as a 2-year-old, chasing home future graded stakes performers My Mane Squeeze and Dolomite, but then went off form later in the season. However, she seemed to get back on track following a freshening in May, registering a convincing victory with a competitive 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was her first start with Lasix, medication that she was not permitted to use last time in the Bouwerie, where she was simply overmatched anyway. She now drops back into an appropriate spot, and should have a chance to flash a little more tactical speed in a race lacking pace.

Fair Value:
#2 CAROL T, at 4-1 or greater
#3 SCARLET'S DREAM, at 6-1 or greater


Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 6

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 10: 7 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 11: 8 - 1A - 5 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 3

A few of these exit the 5th race on June 7 at Saratoga won by Boat’s a Rockin. Run Curtis Run (#5) just missed to that foe, checking in second, and figures to go favored here off the strength of that performance, especially with Irad Ortiz taking over the reins. This horse did get a perfect trip last time, but he possesses versatility that allows him to work out favorable journeys. He’s arguably the one to beat, but I think a couple of others from that June 7 affair also merit consideration. Script (#2) was running on late for a minor award after finding himself at the back of the pack early. He is more of a deep closer but did have to wait in some traffic in upper stretch. Senbei (#1) was arguably more compromised by his wide trip after breaking from post 11. He did well to get up for fourth after racing 3-wide throughout. He’s also had legitimate excuses in each of his last two turf races, getting stymied in traffic on the wrong part of the course when he previously saw the grass at Saratoga last summer. There doesn’t appear to be that much speed in this race, which makes Fore Harp (#6) a danger to wire this field. His recent form looks pretty inconsistent, but it's easy to make excuses for some of his poor results, such as when he chased wide in a race that collapsed last time, or got involved in a wicked pace on dirt last October. His best turf sprint efforts put him in the mix here, and he would be awfully tough to handle if he repeated the 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned going this distance last summer at Laurel. He’s most dangerous when he can make the lead, and he should be able to get in front of Ikigai early, controlling the pace up front at a square price.

Fair Value:
#6 FORE HARP, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

I don’t really have any major knocks against likely favorite Play Good Pay Good (#1), other than the fact she’s likely to be favored, susceptible to getting overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. She looks like the controlling speed from the rail, something she wasn’t able to accomplish last time when unable to make the front through a quick first split going shorter. Her prior two efforts for Dutrow were solid, and she will be a handful if she can get back to that form. Main rival Low Society (#5) would be a serious threat to that one if she runs back to her effort three back, where she beat a solid field with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, I find it strange that Linda Rice went immediately to turf after claiming her, and she lacked any early speed in either of those races. Perhaps getting back ot dirt will wake her up, but it’s not like she was ever the most reliable sort. My top pick is the other Rice runner, Five to Two (#6). She doesn’t have to improve much on the 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned 6 days ago, and that effort is even better than it appears. She got steadied and shuffled out of position soon after the start, and was running on well late. She’s shown in the past that she doesn’t always have to drop so far back, and she should maintain better position from her outside draw this time. Linda Rice has great stats with quick turnarounds like this, going 22 for 82 (27%, $2.58 ROI) off 4 to 8 days’ rest on dirt over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 FIVE TO TWO, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

Gentleman Joe (#4) is another runner on this card who figures to attract support primarily due to connections as he makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow and Michael Dubb with Irad Ortiz riding. He’s moving from one dangerous barn into another, but I prefer him going a little longer than this. He fits at the level but I wouldn’t want him if he is indeed vying for favoritism. The most likely winner is probably Kneedeepinsnow (#5). He’s the class of the field, having placed in a Grade 1 at Saratoga a couple of summers ago. His form has tailed off since then, but he was still in reasonably strong form when claimed by Linda Rice in April. She has done well with her Kentucky claims generally, but I don’t love that this one has been off for some time and now drops slightly in class. Mertkan Kantarmaci sends out an uncoupled pair of runners. Amundson (#6) is seeking his third in a row, but has to step up in class to face a tougher field. He has the back class to be competitive here, but I was more intrigued by his stablemate. Writer’s Regret (#3) had been a solid performer over a few seasons for prior trainer Ralph D’Alessandro, but his form absolutely fell apart when claimed by different connections in March. He dropped all the way down to a much lower level last time for one more attempt to turn things around, to no avail. However, he was claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci, who now confidently moves him back up in class. Kantarmaci is 15 for 65 (23%, $2.45 ROI) first off the claim with horses going up in claiming price by 50% or more on dirt over 5 years, so this has worked for him. He has the tactical speed to be forward in a race lacking pace and gets a major rider upgrade to Manny Franco.

Fair Value:
#3 WRITER'S REGRET, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Kentucky Derby starter Endlessly (#5) figures to go favored in this Grade 1 Belmont Derby based primarily on his synthetic efforts along the Derby trail earlier this season. His 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned in the Jeff Ruby Steaks is clearly the highest number in this field. This colt didn’t run as fast when he was competing on turf as a 2-year-old, but he did win 3 of his 4 starts on this surface, the only loss coming in the Breeders’ Cup. It’s likely that he’s just improved overall since then, but you do have to find out whether he’s capable of running quite as fast on turf while taking a pretty short price. Trikari (#4) shares common ownership with the favorite and earned his way here when causing a 47-1 upset in the American Turf back in May. He got an absolutely perfect trip that day, saving all the ground along the rail. He still has to prove he reproduce that form outside of Churchill going a longer distance. Three of the five runners in this field exit the Pennine Ridge. Both winner Legend of Time (#1) and runner-up White Palomino (#2) worked out very good trips. Legend of Time can be tricky to ride, showing a tendency to get keen early in his races. Racing too freely without cover was his undoing in the American Turf, but William Buick should be familiar with his quirks. My top pick is the Pennine Ridge third-place finisher Royal Majesty (#3). He also saved ground for much of his trip, but he got passed by Legend of Time, who stuck to the rail in upper stretch, whereas Royal Majesty angled out to search for room. He briefly got stymied in traffic behind rivals and had to shift out a couple of times before finally finding a clear path when it was too late. I like the progression this horse has displayed through the spring, and believe he can take another step forward stretching out to today’s 1 3/16 miles.

Fair Value:
#3 ROYAL MAJESTY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

She Feels Pretty (#7) was likely the best filly in this division last year, finishing an unlucky third in the Breeders’ Cup after getting a wide trip from a difficult draw. She had displayed her true talent prior to that, romping over a strong field in the Natalma up at Woodbine. She returned from a layoff looking better than ever last time in the Hilltop. She wasn’t beating much of a field that day, but I loved the way she traveled into the race and drew off so willingly. She faces a much stronger cast of characters this time, but her natural ability may be too much for these to overcome. There are a trio of European imports lining up against her, and they all have some merits. Secret Satire (#5) comes off a poor effort in the Epsom Oaks but did run a race that would make him competitive here in a Group 3 triumph two back. Cinderella’s Dream (#8) displayed some talent in Dubai this past winter, especially when overcoming a crazy trip in the Jumeirah Guineas, winning with William Buick out of the irons. I won’t hold her loss in the English 1000 Guineas against her, but I do worry that this added distance may not suit her. Fun With Flags (#3) is perhaps the biggest wild card among the European contingent, since it’s hard to gauge her class. The filly who beat her last time came back to run poorly in the G1 Prix de Diane, but Fun With Flag’s prior victories against weaker had been visually impressive. She sold at auction for $678k last month. Chad Brown sends out a pair of challengers. Dynamic Pricing (#2) caused an upset in the Edgewood, where she was perhaps helped by some give in the ground. Yet she did overcome a wide journey, and had an excuse when not getting the best trip two back in the Florida Oaks. She appears to be in good form and is supposed to handle some added distance. I just prefer Chad Brown’s other horse. I love the way Segesta (#6) seems to be progressing with each start, not only getting faster but improving mentally with every outing. She just lacked some focus when always too far back behind a slow pace on debut before galloping out ahead of everyone. Yet she’s steadily put things together since then. She still doesn’t want to hit the front too soon, idling when she got the lead at Keeneland two back. She got an interesting trip in the Wonder Again last time, contesting an honest pace before backing off mid-race, only to come on again. She won more comfortably than the margin suggests, as Irad rode her confidently. Her tactical speed makes her dangerous as she steps up again.

Fair Value:
#6 SEGESTA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11

The Chad Brown entry figures to be a very short price in this finale. Research Results (#1A) is the leading half of the pair based on his debut effort. He got mildly shut off at the start, squeezed back to last before moving up keenly on the backstretch into the pocket. He finished decently for third, earning a strong 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure in a fast race for the level. A repeat of that performance will obviously make him tough. Entryamte Creditworthy (#1) is a first time starter by Mitole who worked 10-flat when he sold at the OBS March sale last year. There isn’t that much turf pedigree with this one, but he’s been working steadily for the debut. I’m not thrilled with the other horses who sport recent turf form. Side Eye (#6) didn’t finish that far behind Research Results on debut, but doesn’t have as much upside as that one, and I’ve tried Cuando (#3) a couple of times on grass and just wonder if he’s really improved much on this surface. One horse trying the turf for the first time that intrigues me is Two Tons of Fun (#5). The connections aren’t known for winning with horses like this, but he’s by 15% turf sprint sire Nyquist, and he has a distinct turf action, really floating with each stride. He may take to this surface at a square price. My top pick is Prospero (#8). He hasn’t run since making his debut in September of his 2-year-old season. This Irish-bred son of No Nay Never looked like he was just out for a test spin that day for Jorge Abreu, allowed to drop back early before making up some mild ground while always far back. However, that was a very live race for the level, from which horses have returned to run well. He now returns for Cherie DeVaux, who is 10 for 48 (21%, $4.17 ROI) first off a trainer switch over 5 years. He’s bred to be a good one, out of a full-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning turf horse Midday.

Fair Value:
#8 PROSPERO, at 5-1 or greater


Picks & Plays for Friday, July 5

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 8 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

Welcome Back Babe (#8) figures to go favored by default as Irad Ortiz takes over the reins. This filly does have some credentials, having at least shown some early speed before fading in her first couple of starts at the maiden special weight level. Her last two races are obviously irrelevant, one a turf race and the other where she dumped her jockey. She’s dropping into a realistic spot and is drawn well outside. First time starter Annieworkstoomuch (#5) could attract support shipping in for Brittany Russell, who has decent if unconvincing statistics with these types. She’s by 18% debut sire Competitive Edge and appears to be working decently. Noble Disguise (#1) is nearly as much of a wild card after barely lifting a hoof in her turf unveiling. This filly has a nice pedigree, being out of a stakes-winning dam, but she still has a long way to go based on the debut. She looked very green and wasn’t asked for much, striding awkwardly at the back of the pack. Now she drops considerably, and has to figure things out quickly. My top pick is Shehanah (#6). I don’t think this filly has run that poorly in either of her prior dirt efforts. She was glued to the inside on debut, racing in tight quarters through the stretch against a tougher field. Then last time she didn’t seem to respond well to her rail draw, losing position down the backstretch before reacting to kickback on the turn. She was still trying hard late, passing horses across the wire. I think she’ll be capable of better now that she draws outside, and she shouldn’t mind the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs.

Fair Value:
#6 SHEHANAH, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

I wanted to avoid the horses trying turf for the first time, a couple of which could take money here. Janssen (#5) does have some pedigree in his female family, since his dam is a half-sister to synthetic Grade 1 winner Mushka and his second dam was a turf specialist. However, Accelerate and Bodemeister still account for 75% of his bloodlines, and that isn’t exactly a turf cross. Malibu Margarita (#8) is a little more convincing for turf. Malibu Moon isn’t a terrible influence, and the dam did win once on turf, though she was more of a dirt horse. Yet I still would rather take horses with some turf experience. The one with the best last race is A Lister (#1), who suddenly woke up in career start number 19, showing uncharacteristic early speed to lead into deep stretch at 39-1 before getting run down. He had gotten a tough wide trip in his prior start, so it wasn’t as if that improvement materialized from nowhere. Yet he’s still tough to trust as a win candidate, especially with the apprentice aboard. Waflr (#7) seems like a more intriguing option. At first glance, it might appear that he’s done his best running on dirt. Yet he’s run a little better than it might appear in his limited turf attempts. Last time he just got too far back in the early stages, but was making up ground across the wire. I would use him. My top pick is Awesome Force (#3). He’s another who hasn’t yet hit the board on turf, but he didn’t run that badly a couple of times last year after getting involved in fast paces that came apart. He ran off through the early stages on May 19 and was chasing quick fractions on July 1. He missed plenty of time after that, but he at least he got in a prep on dirt in his recent return, using the claiming waiver, suggesting he needed the race. He now returns to grass and gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Gomez.

Fair Value:
#3 AWESOME FORCE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

A couple of the likely favorites in this second-level allowance optional claimer exit the June 7 Saratoga race won so impressively by Arthur’s Ride. Perform (#5) was the closest pursuer at the wire, still crossing the line nearly 13 lengths behind the winner. After a bump at the start, he got a very good trip thereafter, saving ground before rallying into second. The 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive here, but that was a strange race featuring large gaps at the wire, and multiple horses who failed to show up with their best efforts. Donegal Forever (#7) is one of those who was beaten by a substantial margin, though he had some excuse, stumbling at the start before racing wide throughout. I still haven’t been thrilled with any of this efforts since returning from a layoff this past winter at Gulfstream. He looked so full of promise in that debut victory last year, but it appears he may not have moved forward since then. Unlike that pair, Power Seeker (#4) is stretching out in distance. There isn’t much pace in this race, with the TimeformUS Pace Projector actually characterizing this as a No Speed scenario. Power Seeker is shown leading after a half-mile, even though he’s not exactly a typical frontrunner. He ran well behind the classy Artorius last time, and could be effective here if he gets an aggressive ride going this distance. The new face in this lineup is Archie the Giza (#1), who was in great form earlier this season, upsetting a strong allowance field at Oaklawn before finishing a solid third in the Grade 3 Ben Ali two back. I am bothered by his last race, which was extremely disappointing, but he would fit well here if he could bounce back to form. My top pick is Mistical Curlin (#2), who attempts to win his second start in a row. In a race where a lot of horses seem tough to trust, this 5-year-old just feels like the reliable option. He’s proven at the distance, and he’s run plenty of speed figures against weaker competition that make him fast enough to win at this level. It did take him several starts to break though his N1X condition. However, he had valid excuses two and three back, breaking through the gate prior to the start on March 9 before getting off to a poor beginning on April 6. He’s still gradually been improving since his return from a winter layoff, and he finally delivered a comfortable victory last time when working out a good trip. He figures to get another favorable ground-saving journey here form his inside draw.

Fair Value:
#2 MISTICAL CURLIN, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9

Summer Whirl (#6) could go favored here as she stretches out following an encouraging sprint debut. She was bumped at the break and off slowly, falling far behind the leaders down the backstretch. Yet she started to progress up the inside around the turn and was flying through along the rail late. She’s not supposed to have any issues stretching out as a daughter of Arrogate, but I do wonder about the quality of the field she was facing on debut. She’s a contender, but I wouldn’t want to accept too short a price. Among those with route experience, Autumn (#1) seems like a logical contender off her third-place effort at Saratoga last time. Yet there’s another filly exiting that race who intrigues me more. Bobby M's Girl (#8) was making her debut and got an awkward trip. She was ridden forward early, but then taken in hand onto the backstretch, from there getting repeatedly shuffled back along the inside, only to finish well when angled out late. She is probably capable of better, but needs a smoother journey this time. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of runners, of which I’m interested in the one who could be a bigger price. Island Fox (#5) is by Catalina Cruiser, who still has to prove himself as a turf influence. Yet the dam was a 5-time turf winner, and this filly displayed a high-striding action on debut that suggests she may do better on grass. Christophe Clement has strong statistics with second time starters switching to turf for the first time. My top pick is Alittlebitnaughty (#2). With routine improvement through maturity, this well-bred and expensive daughter of Oscar Performance should fit well against this group. Neither of her 2-year-old races came up particularly fast, but she was competitive against some legitimate foes, including Boxed Wine, who has since run much faster as a 3-year-old. Alittlebitnaughty also didn’t get ideal trips either time, racing outside from a wide post on debut before getting held up in traffic on the far turn last time. Danny Gargan is 13 for 44 (30%, $2.22 ROI) off layoffs of 150 to 300 days over 5 years, and this filly has been entered and scratched previously, so she’s supposed to be fit for this return.

Fair Value:
#2 ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY, at 9-2 or greater
#5 ISLAND FOX, at 7-1 or greater


Picks & Plays for Thursday, July 4

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 2 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 1X - 2/2B
Race 7: 4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 1 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

Heavy favorite Sedona (#6) is clearly the horse to beat, but she has all the trappings of an overbet favorite. She’s lightly raced, sporting a huge purchase price and regal pedigree. That perceived potential is going to be built into her price, and she has Irad Ortiz aboard, which will pull even more wagering support in her direction. This daughter of Curlin obviously has some talent, finishing second in an allowance race of reasonable quality last time at Churchill. However, she was no threat for the winner, and needs to continue to progressing to justify the price she figures to be. Main rival Miz Sense (#3) is still unexposed, since gate issues have plagued her in every start so far, arguably preventing her from showing her true potential. In her most recent start off the layoff, she broke slowly and got cut off soon after the start before rallying behind the talented Ways and Means. She does give off the vibe that more distance may suit her, but she can’t give away too much ground early, especially stretching out to this distance. My top pick is Ichiban (#4). In a race lacking early pace, she should be in a position to control this on the front end. This New York-bred obviously has questions to answer, since her form had really fallen apart late last season. Yet she’s been ready to run for a while, entered and scratched from that June 6 allowance race at Saratoga, and Linda Rice appears to have worked more fitness into her since then. She’s been successful going this distance in the past, albeit against weaker, and may be capable of running faster as she makes her 4-year-old debut. She will need to improve slightly, but at least she figures to be a better price than the two aforementioned favorites.

Fair Value:
#4 ICHIBAN, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

Chad Brown sends out the two likely favorites in this first-level allowance going the marathon distance of 1 3/8 miles on turf. Between his uncoupled pair entered for turf, I slightly prefer Going Concern (#1), who still has upside in just the third start of his career. This gelded son of Kingman delivered at a short price on debut at Tampa over the winter. While he disappointed when stepping up against winners last time, he didn’t have an ideal start and couldn’t make up ground in a race dominated up front. Now he adds blinkers, potentially looking to get a little more engaged early in the race. There’s still upside with this lightly raced 4-year-old, but he will need to improve. The same can be said of Catch a Wave (#6), who has improved with each start. He also won his debut at Tampa before facing tougher company in Kentucky and New York. He’s been a little one-paced in those two most recent efforts, hitting his best stride too late at Keeneland before never launching a rally last time going this distance. He takes blinkers off as Flavien Prat gets back aboard, and just needs to find a more potent late kick. I want to take a shot against this pair of favorites, neither of which stands on particularly solid ground, with a horse who figures to be a generous price. Scat Tu Tap (#4) may look slightly overmatched at first glance, and some handicappers are sure to be turned off by the fact that it took him 15 starts to break his maiden. However, he had some trips over the winter at Gulfstream, getting bumped out to the center of the course at the quarter pole on Feb. 15 before working out an extremely wide trip on Mar. 20. He finally got his diploma in April, settling off the pace with blinkers removed before making a late rush to get up. He then stepped up against winners last time, and likely would have won his second race in a row if he hadn’t been ridden directly into traffic at the quarter pole, losing all his momentum. The stretch-out is a question mark, but this son of marathoner Tu Brutus has the stride length and cadence to suggest more ground may suit him. He also gets a significant jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis.

Fair Value:
#4 SCAT TU TAP, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

Emery (#3) figures to be a clear favorite in this Victory Ride as she looks to take her sprint record to 4 for 4. She has been perfect in two sprint starts since returning as a 3-year-old, winning both that Keeneland allowance and the Leslie’s Lady under mild hand urging in visually impressive scores. She has shown the versatility to rate and finish, which should be an asset in a race where there are a couple of speeds drawn directly inside of her. I view her as the most likely winner, but I also anticipate that she will be a very short price once again. From a speed figure standpoint, there really isn’t much separating the five runners in this field, so I don’t want to accept too short a price on anyone. Fellow Kentucky shipper Halina’s Forte (#4) won a slightly weaker race last time at Churchill. She’s obviously one of the contenders here, but I don’t love that she hasn’t really moved forward at all since her 2-year-old season. Mystic Lake (#1) projects to be the main speed from the inside, but I won’t be surprised if she gets some pressure from Golden Degree after that one flashed plenty of early zip last time. Mystic Lake does appear to be in great form, but she’s facing some tougher rivals than she’s encountered in her prior dirt victories. My top pick is Autumn Evening (#5). She hasn’t run quite as fast as some of the favorites in here, but she does appear to be heading in the right direction since coming into the Rick Dutrow barn. She won going a mile last time, but used speed to do so, putting that field away with a quarter still to go before coasting home. She defeated a pretty solid field to break her maiden sprinting, a race from which horses have returned to run well. She appears to be working strongly for this stakes debut, and she should sit a good stalking trip from this outside draw.

Fair Value:
#5 AUTUMN EVENING, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

While I’m not totally against likely favorite Bossy Jeans (#1), I wonder if this race was really the connections’ first preference. She was entered last week going 6 furlongs in a race rained off the turf, and that turnback might have actually suited her better based on the way she ran last season. She showed a tendency to lack some finish in her two-turn races, albeit against maiden special weight foes. She’s getting appropriate class relief in her return and should fit well here with routine improvement. She just won’t be much of a price with Irad aboard. The Splendid One (#3) ran plenty of turf races last year that would put her in the winner’s circle against a group like this. She is a little tough to take as an 0 for 16 maiden, but only 5 of those starts have come on her preferred surface. She lost by less than a length against maiden special weight foes around this time last year and was remarkably consistent from a speed figure standpoint on turf last year. I’ll definitely be using her prominently. My top pick is Tongue Twister (#5), who stretches out and drops in for a tag for the first time. She’s just getting realistic class relief after a disappointing effort in her return. She ran fine on debut last year, following the winner en route to a second-place result in a slow-paced affair. She didn’t fare as well off the layoff last time, but that was a much stronger field and she appeared to lose momentum when surrounded by horses in the stretch. She actually galloped out decently thereafter like a horse who wouldn’t mind the stretch-out. I have no issues with the route distance based on her pedigree, and she should play out as the main speed going this trip.

Fair Value:
#5 TONGUE TWISTER, at 7-2 or greater


Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 23

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 12 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 8 - 7 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 3

Big Everest (#6) has done some of his best work at Aqueduct, achieving 4 of his 8 lifetime victories over this venue’s turf courses. He returned to this venue at today’s allowance level last time, contesting an honest pace before fading. Yet the two rivals who defeated him are hardly slouches, who worked out better trips. His TimeformUS Speed Figures, consistently at or above the 120 mark, would suggest that he has actually held his form reasonably well despite losing 4 of his last 5 starts. I view him as the horse to beat in here, but I am a little concerned about the stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles in a race that features other speed. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of runners coming off layoffs, and I’m skeptical of both. Major Dude (#2) makes his 4-year-old debut following just under 10 months on the sidelines. He showed real talent early in his career, but his form tailed off later in the season, and it’s taken him a while to get back to the races. Steady On (#5)has been on the bench even longer, last competing on April 1 of 2023. He had just put forth the best effort of his career to win the Appleton Stakes, and it’s never a good sign when horses disappear after attaining top form. Kalik (#7) looked like a rising force in his division last year after winning the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge before his form fell apart, disappointing in both the Belmont Derby and King’s Plate. He returned as a newly gelded 4-year-old last time and failed to deliver again. Yet he had a valid excuse that day, as he stumbled significantly at the start and was always out of position. I think he can bounce back with a more aggressive ride this time. I would just need a generous price to back him, and that may not be available with Irad Ortiz aboard. My top pick is Atone (#1). Becoming a Grade 1 winner might have been the worst thing that ever happened to this gelding. He achieved that feat when winning a watered down edition of the Pegasus World Cup Turf in early 2023. He’s been on a steady diet of graded stakes ever since, and has generally been regarded as a disappointment. Yet he was never a true Grade 1 quality performer. I would argue that the best race he’s ever produced came in the following year’s Pegasus World Cup Turf, where he faced a stronger field and got up for fourth at 34-1. Since then I can make a few excuses for him. He got the wrong trip in the Canadian Turf, attempting to launch a wide rally on the far turn. He then ran respectably on synthetic before encountering a boggy course that he doesn’t care for in the Dinner Party last time. He’s now dropping to a realistic level and getting his preferred firm turf. Kendrick Carmouche has ridden him well before, and I think we may finally see this horse get back to the winner’s circle.

Fair Value:
#1 ATONE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

Firsttimeinforever (#8) has lost at short prices in both local starts, but the public figures to go back to her here anyway. She was catching a tougher group than this back in April when beaten by Overacting. She got relegated to a wide trip around both turns, but still took advantage of a quick pace and had her chance to win before settling for second. Then last time she showed improved early speed but was rated into a pocket trip. That might have been a fine decision by Flavien Prat if it had worked out, but she got completely sawed off in traffic when attempting to move up the rail in the stretch. I do think this filly has talent, but I doubt she’s going to offer much value given the obvious troubled trips. I also have concerns about the 1 1/8 miles, since she runs like a horse that may prefer shorter trips. The horse I prefer out of that May 25 affair is Boxed Wine (#7). Her trouble wasn’t as plainly apparent as that of the favorite, but she hardly had an ideal trip that day. She broke a step slowly, traveled in a precarious spot between horses much of the way, and then got shuffled back behind a tiring runner before steadying in upper stretch. She actually did well to run on for fifth after that. She looked like a horse that had taken a big step forward as a 3-year-old when she broke her maiden two back, and I think she can build on that performance here. Among those with turf form, I also don’t want to overlook Stella Mars (#12), who exits the slower division of the aforementioned May 25 allowance. She saved ground that day, but was never fully clear in the lane while getting a tentative ride. Now they take the blinkers off, and I like that she’s getting reunited with Ruben Silvera, who had success with her last season. She just has to overcome a wide draw. My top pick is Midnight Concerto (#6), who tries grass for the first time. She may get somewhat overlooked due to her slow speed figures on the dirt, but she has a right to run much faster now that she’s had time to mature. Her debut last summer at Saratoga was very encouraging, as she made a wild late run from far back, making up a massive amount of ground in the lane. She broke her maiden off a layoff and then was no match for a tougher group in the Maddie May. Yet I like her switching over to grass. She’s by 13% turf route sire Mendelssohn, and her dam was a turf winner. She appears to be training better than ever for this, and I think she has more early speed than she’s shown in prior starts.

Fair Value:
#6 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO, at 8-1 or greater
#7 BOXED WINE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

There’s little doubt that Gaslight Dancer (#8) will beat this field if he produces one of his better efforts. It’s just hard to trust that this horse is going to show up wih his best given his recent form, and this sharp drop in class. He showed talent as a younger horse, narrowly losing the G3 Futurity as a 2-year-old before winning the Palisades as a 3-year-old Yet his recent form leaves a lot to be desired. The best thing I can say about him is that he has met significantly better rivals in those last two starts, and it’s not like he was totally disgraced either time. Margins of defeat can be compressed on the turf, but he was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths for second behind the classy Bound for Nowhere last time. If he merely holds that form he might be tough for this group to handle. Yet I want to explore a few alternatives. Li’l Lang (#6) is a horse that I was excited to see get a chance on the turf two back when he was 19-1 in his turf debut. I think I was right about him appreciating the turf, but he just wasn’t good enough to beat a tough field of allowance horses. He fared a little better last time, and probably wasn’t done any favors by Flavien Prat trying out rating tactics. This time he’s supposed to just go to the front. I’m still not convinced he’s quite as good as the favorite or one other rival, but he is a gate to wire threat. I also think Image of Quality (#9) could run better out of that same April 21 affair. He got pace to close into that day and was just picking up pieces, but he hasn’t had ideal trips in a few starts and may be better than he looks on paper. My top pick is King Moonracer (#1). He’s another horse who hasn’t competed for a tag in a very long time, and he might just be getting the class relief that he needs at this point in his career. He was facing much better fields in those recent allowance events, even at the New York-bred level where he met the likes of promising turf sprinters Twenty Six Black and Works for Me. Ignoring that outlier performance on a yielding course last summer, it’s not like his form has tailed off that much since his peak. He drew well in a race that is supposed to feature some pace, and I think the price will be fair.

Fair Value:
#1 KING MOONRACER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Perhaps the public will default to a horse like first time starter Under Agreement (#7), who debuts for the $40k tag after getting purchased overseas for $194k. Chad Brown is 4 for 20 (20%, $2.34 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming turf routes over 5 years. This filly has some pedigree and may prove too good for this field if she can run at all. It’s just hard to believe you’re going to get much value with Irad Ortiz named to ride. Among those with turf experience, perhaps Wake Up Lauren (#1) will take some money based on her competitive speed figure two back. However, I didn’t think she did much running in that race, just carried along by the nature of turf racing. I much prefer Magic Eight Ball (#8), who actually ran pretty well in her lone turf start last year. She was facing a strong field, led by winner Waskesiu, who returned to win the Florida Oaks two starts later. The second and third-place finishers both came back to win next time, the latter doing so last week with an improved speed figure. I also didn’t think Magic Eight Ball got a great trip that day. She was steadied early, got keen thereafter and was striding awkwardly to upper stretch before staying on. She’s getting logical class relief off the layoff and just makes plenty of sense. My top pick is True Myth (#5), who returns from a layoff trying turf for the first time. The connections wanted to get this filly on turf last fall when staying in an off the turf event. She didn’t run well that day, but her debut wasn’t so bad, as she was running on strongly across the wire after lagging behind early. There’s some turf pedigree here, being a daughter of 13% turf route sire Mendelssohn out of a dam who was a 2-time turf winner. The dam herself didn’t exactly improve on turf, but this filly struck me as one that would really benefit from the surface switch when I watched her run last year. John Terranova is also 11 for 46 (24%, $2.61 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#5 TRUE MYTH, at 9-2 or greater


Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 22

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 6 - 1A/1 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 3 - 12
Race 9: 7 - 1A - 3 - 8
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 11: 2 - 9 - 5 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 1

Chad Brown sends out an entry that figures to go off at a very short price in the opener. Factor Analysis (#1) is the half that's proven at the distance, having finished third over this trip last month. He was staying on well in a couple of one-mile events at Tampa in her first two starts, but did run a faster speed figure once stretched out to this 11-furlong distance last time. He got a pretty good trip saving ground every step of the way, but the race did feature a pretty slow pace and the top two finishers had better forward position. He's extremely logical, but you’re not going to get much of a price as a coupled entry with Vesting (#1A). This Irish-bred son of sprinter Blue Point took a little money on debut, especially considering what a competitive race that May 19 affair turned out to be. He ran pretty well considering the trip. He was reserved in behind and between horses early, and appeared to have some run in upper stretch but just lacked a clear path, altering course before flattening out. It’s an interesting decision to stretch him out to this marathon distance now, but he does have some stamina on the bottom side of his pedigree. I’m never looking to take a short price on entries, so I want to find a viable alternative. De La Cruz (#6) hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet as a half-brother to Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner Proud Spell. Yet this gelding by turf influence Divisidero clearly prefers the grass. He took a nice step forward in his second start at Gulfstream, rallying late despite hanging on his left lead through the lane, still looking a little green. His 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in this field, and that’s proven to be a legitimate race. Winner Time Song came back to finish third with a 106 TimeformUS Figure in a loaded allowance race at Saratoga two weeks ago. De La Cruz was bet down to favoritism last time at Monmouth. After getting held back while keen early, he was finishing well once getting into the clear but just was left with too much to do. He runs like a horse that might appreciate some more ground, and now gets a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario.

Fair Value:
#6 DE LA CRUZ, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

Linda Rice’s influence is all over this race. At one point or another she’s trained 5 of the 7 horses in this field, including two who are currently in her barn. The potential favorite is Principe d’Oro (#7), who was claimed away from Linda two starts ago. He ran well when finally getting class relief two back, winning at this distance with a competitive speed figure. He didn’t fare as well when raised in class for a new barn last time, but he really lost all chance at the start. He’s a horse who wants to be forward, and he got steadied badly after the start, putting him out of position. I expect him to run better here with the turnback and switch to an outside post. Storming Chrome (#3) narrowly lost that race with a good trip, but I’m not sure the turnback necessarily benefits him as much. He’s another horse who does his best running when he’s forward, and it appears that others are naturally faster. I think both of the current Linda Rice trainees are interesting in this spot as they each make their first starts off the claim. Certified Loverboy (#1) is the more logical of the two. He primarily competed in tougher spots for Ray Handal and held his own against better rivals. He was a little disappointing when dropped in for a tag last time, but has now had some time to regroup. I don’t love that he’s drawn the rail again, something that happens to his horse with astounding frequency, but he may work out the right trip from a stalking position. My top pick is the other Linda Rice claim, Timaeus (#6). This horse once looked like a promising runner, chasing home the classy Subrogate on debut. He was off for a long time after that, returning to break his maiden against weaker for Todd Pletcher. He then faced a much weaker field of conditioned claimers last time and had to work hard just to finish second. Yet I find it interesting that Linda Rice claims this horse, and now moves him up into a protected spot. She generally does very well when she places her new claims aggressively, especially when she claims a horse with upside like this one. It’s also noteworthy that Jose Lezcano lands here rather than on the more logical of her two runners.

Fair Value:
#6 TIMAEUS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8

Instamatic (#1) would be the horse to beat in this first level allowance all on his own, but his price could dip even lower if entrymate Big Prankster (#1A) draws in from the AE list. Both are strong contenders in this 6-furlong affair, though I would give preference to Instamatic. This Danny Gargan trainee drew much better towards the inside as he steps up against winners for the first time. He was mildly disappointing after attracting support in all three starts last season, but just looked like a horse who had put it all together in his return from the layoff last time. Making his first start as a new gelding and with Lasix, he rallied strongly to a decisive victory. A repeat of that performance makes him dangerous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with multiple speeds signed on. Yet even with plenty of pace signed on, it’s hard to see anyone outrunning Heymackit’sjack (#3) to the lead if he breaks cleanly. I’m not sure exactly what to expect from this horse as he returns from layoff that has lasted over a year. Yet he’s capable of running some fast speed figures when he’s in form, and he produced one of his better races off a layoff when he returned in Jan. 2023. He’s working well for new trainer Jamie Begg, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. I still think there’s a chance for this race to come apart, which could help a horse like Jimmythetooth (#12). I can’t figure out why this horse was so far back early in that May 25 race, since he had shown better tactical speed in all of his prior starts. Perhaps he was just a little dull coming off the layoff, and he did stay on decently to pass tired rivals in a race that didn’t feature much pace. Yet if I’m considering him, I have to upgrade Kreesa (#2) at a much bigger price as he exits the same race. This 5-year-old gelding has had more chances than some others, but he’s also run some races that make him competitive at this level. Last time out in that May 25 affair, he also was outrun through the early stages behind moderate fractions in a forwardly-dominated race. Yet whereas Manny Franco was all over Jimmythetooth trying to make up ground late, Jose Gomez was barely asking Kreesa as he just coasted through the stretch. I don’t think this horse was ever hitting the board that day, but the lack of effort makes the race look worse than it was. Now he gets a rider switch to Romero Maragh, and he drew well in a race that features plenty of pace to set up his late run.

Fair Value:
#2 KREESA, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

It will be important to note which half of the Linda Rice entry participates here, since it’s pretty clear that Golden Degree (#1A) is the stronger of the two runners. I don’t put much stock in the 32-length victory last time since she wasn’t beating much but she did seem to improve off the claim for Rice. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest last-out number in this field, and I don’t mind the turnback in distance. The horse to beat is arguably Gav’s Dream Girl (#3), who took her dirt record to 2 for 2 after winning a $14k conditioned claimer by 9 lengths last time. On paper, it looks like she was always up front benefiting from a slow pace. Yet the replay reveals that she actually broke last and was at the back of the pack early before making a move at the half-mile pole to take over. She’s stepping way up in class but not catching the toughest field for this level. She also has shown good versatility in a race where the pace scenario looks murky. I considered Six Pack Senorita (#8), who has improved in recent starts for Rudy Rodriguez. However, I thought she got a perfect trip last time and still couldn’t reel in her stablemate at this level. She’s a horse who generally has some trouble finishing off her races, but I do like the outside draw. My top pick is Spiritual Lady (#7), who is a new face shipping in for Joe Sharp. I like that he’s bringing a horse to run in a protected spot rather than just bringing her here to get claimed. Her Oaklawn form is hard to get too excited about, but she has improved over her last couple of starts in Kentucky. She was meeting a deceptively tough field at this level last time at Churchill, and she held her own to finish third. She’s one of the few in this field who might actually be getting some class relief for a dangerous barn.

Fair Value:
#7 SPIRITUAL LADY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

Gala Brand (#1) is arguably the class of this field as she returns from a layoff. She showed real ability as a 2-year-old last summer, beating males to win the Grade 3 With Anticipation in her second start. She didn’t get the best trip next time in the Miss Grillo before never having a fair chance in the Breeders’ Cup, which was dominated towards the front end. Bill Mott can have one ready off a layoff, but I don’t love her running style, and I’m concerned that she may have just been a precocious 2-year-old. The horse to beat is probably Oversubscribed (#9), who seemingly has the most upside of anyone in this field. Both of her races are better than they look on paper. She had to overcome an extremely slow pace to get up to share the victory on debut. Then last time she got badly steadied past the half-mile pole before rallying to get up for second. I prefer her to Macanga (#4), who defeated her that day. Macanga possesses dangerous early speed, but she got to control up front last time and there is supposed to be a little more early pressure in this spot. Vino Rouge (#3) might be getting some minor class relief after facing some tough older rivals when she came off the layoff in an allowance event. That was an oddly run affair, where a couple of speeds ran off and she had to make the first move to reel them in before flattening out. She won’t need to improve much to be competitive with this group. My top pick is one of the other Chad Brown runners. Chantilly Road (#8) clearly appreciated the switch to turf two back. She lost to stablemate Grayosh that day, who is back in here, but she looked like a horse who was still figuring things out. She took another step forward in her second turf start last time, stalking the pace before taking over and gamely holding sway. She may not have run better than the runner-up, who was wide on the turns, but she was never letting that horse pass in the stretch. That’s been a decent affair, from which third-place finisher Justdeny returned to win earlier this week. She has the speed to get forward in a race that may not feature a particularly fast pace. I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario, and she could fly under the radar as the least accomplished of this Brown trio.

Fair Value:
#8 CHANTILLY ROAD, at 5-1 or greater


Picks & Plays for Friday, June 21

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS


Race 1: 1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 9 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 2 - 1A
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 11 - 3 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 1

I don’t have a major knock against Save Time (#2) as the obvious favorite, but she does figure to be an extremely short price with Irad Ortiz taking over the reins. She’s been steadily improving over the course of her three prior starts, and she clearly appreciated the stretch-out to a mile in her last couple of outings. However, she takes a long time to wind up her late run, and never looked like she was getting there last time until she finally kicked in through the last eighth of a mile. Perhaps that grinding style will translate well to 9 furlongs. She adds blinkers, which is actually a pretty good move for the Brown barn. I prefer her to stablemate Rising Inflation (#5), who wasn’t meeting much of a field on debut where none of those fillies were any match for winner Life Talk. She got in a prep on turf last time and now goes back to the dirt, but needs to improve. The best thing I can say about her is that her early speed makes her dangerous in a paceless affair. I want to take a shot against these favorites with Autumn’s Turn (#1). She’s had more chances than the rest, but her form starts to look a little more encouraging when you take it apart. She ran deceptively well in that April 7 race behind Save Time. Whereas that rival was saving ground over a rail-biased surface, Autumn’s Turn was wide every step of the way and still never threw in the towel. I don’t care about her turf race, and then last time she was facing a better field of winners on dirt at Monmouth. She was dismissed at a huge price, but stayed on well for second behind a superior winner. She’s handled two turns, and should relish getting back out to this 9-furlong distance.

Fair Value:
#1 AUTUMN'S TURN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

I wasn't thrilled with either half of this Michael Dubb entry, of which only Mystic Night (#1A) remains. He was a vet scratch in April and now returns from a layoff. It’s not a good sign that he’s been unable to make it back to the races off a win back in March, and now he’s dropping slightly in class. Bourbon Calling (#5) seems a little more trustworthy as drops back down to a more realistic level second off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s regained his consistency lately and ran respectably against a tougher field last time. I also don’t want to dismiss Blake B. (#2), who should play out as the main speed from the inside under Romero Maragh. He got involved in a fast pace that fell apart in the same race Bourbon Calling exits, and may be capable of better here. My top pick is Skylander (#6). This horse has plenty of back class from not so long ago, having won a starter allowance race in September of last year over this course and distance. His form tailed off for the previous barn, especially after he was entered in some unrealistic spots. He dropped all the way down to the $12,500 claiming level last time and failed to get the job done as the favorite. Yet now he’s been claimed by Orlando Noda, and he might be capable of getting back on track moving into a new barn.

Fair Value:
#6 SKYLANDER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

It’s pretty obvious that Danzigwiththestars (#7) is the horse to beat based on the company he’s been keeping through his recent starts. He’s entered for the optional claiming price of $45k this time, but he won this corresponding New York-bred allowance condition all the way back in 2022. Since then he’s competed exclusively against open company in the allowance ranks, actually winning one of those races last fall in his first start off the trainer switch to Rick Dutrow. He returned from a layoff last time in a pretty tough spot, stepping up against open N2X foes, and he just wasn’t good enough. Yet he was also done no favors by the trip he got, since he was parked outside in the 3 to 4-path throughout. Now he’s getting realistic class relief as he drops back down. He’s a deserving favorite, but you will likely have to swallow a pretty short price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. A few of his main rivals exit a race at this level from May 24, but I don’t really want anyone from that spot. It was a merry-go-round affair won by the early leader, so I’m not inclined to take Born Dancer (#9) or Bar Fourteen (#4), who were just tracking that moderate pace. Sell Something (#2) has an excuse for his poor finish, since he was extremely wide around the turns, but it’s not as if his prior form points him out as a serious contender here. The lone 3-year-old in this field is Cable Ready (#8), who cause a major upset to win his turf debut at 19-1 two starts ago. His connections got a little too ambitious trying the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge off that score, but he was hardly disgraced checking in fourth after stalking the pace. He has to run a little better than either of those performances to get the job done here, but he does still have more upside than most in here, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. My top pick is Rough Draft (#3), who returns to New York after spending the winter in Florida. He raced competitively at this level when in the barn of David Duggan last season before changing hands a few times. He didn’t run well for Brittany Russell when she had him for a brief period earlier this year, but he took a big step forward off the claim for Fernando Abreu two back. He got a good trip in that race, but still was game to beat a classy horse in Border Town. He wasn’t as effective at the same level last time, but I think that can be attributed to his trip. He just got an awkward ride, moving up into a precarious spot on the backstretch before getting shuffled back, and then getting caught in more traffic before steadying at the quarter pole. He’s now had some time off and returns in this appropriate spot.

Fair Value:
#3 ROUGH DRAFT, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

Fabulous Fox (#2) didn't earn much of a speed figure on debut, but it was a pretty good effort. That October maiden event featured a very slow pace where the winner was prominent throughout. This filly got off a step slowly and found herself at the back of the pack early. She encountered some traffic around the far turn and into the lane before rallying nicely for third. She subsequently switched to the dirt, where she at least showed improved early speed and actually ran well two back. She’s now getting back on what might be her preferred surface, but she does figure to take money here with Irad Ortiz aboard. Cerretta (#3) has plenty of turf form that makes her competitive here, but she’s just had so many chances. She has been wide in both starts since returning from a layoff and now draws inside, but she’s still not the most reliable win candidate. My top pick is first time starter Better Be Smart (#4). She ran pretty well on debut in the slop, racing in some traffic before staying on for third. She failed to show improvement on a fast track next time, and then regressed after showing speed going a mile. Street Sense is a 10% turf sprint sire, and the unraced dam's only other foal to race has never tried turf. Yet looking deeper, the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner General Quarters as well as A Shin Top, a Group 2 winner on turf in Japan. I also think it’s interesting that she ran her best dirt race over a sloppy, sealed track. She’s going to be a big price and wouldn’t have to improve too much on her dirt form to be competitive here.

Fair Value:
#4 BETTER BE SMART, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

I’m never looking to take an extremely short price on horses like Nostalgic One (#11), who has plenty of speed figures that make her faster than this field. He’s faced far better company in almost all of his recent starts, and is probably just getting the class relief he needs. However, I’m not sure how good this horse actually is. Many of those superior speed figures were earned by just running along at one pace, carried along by the quality of his competition. The only time he got seriously involved in a race was going 1 1/2 miles at Kentucky Downs two back. He might just get the job done due to the quality of this field, but I wanted to find at least one interesting alternative. Pappou’s Laugh (#9) is a horse that I had tabbed earlier this winter as one that I wanted to see on turf. His damside pedigree is all turf influence, as his dam was proficient on the surface, and he’s a half-brother to turf stakes winner Get Jets. It’s mildly concerning that Carlos Martin ran him for a $20k tag two back rather than just sitting on him until turf season, so I wonder about his overall ability. That said, he has the early speed to get forward in here, and he could take this group a long way up front if he handles the surface.

Fair Value:
#9 PAPPOU'S LAUGH, at 5-1 or greater


TimeformUS Race Analysis (2024)

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